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«A Dissertation Presented in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree Doctor of Philosophy Approved November 2014 by the Graduate ...»

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In addition to this financial advantage of international migration, living experiences in other countries, especially in countries socioeconomically better off than Nepal, would provide migrants new ideas, values, and experiences. This aspect of migration can be well explained by diffusion theory. According to Casterline (2001),

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behaviors and the spread of them through personal or social interactions. Although the theory sprung from the consideration of fertility, this view of diffusion theory is relevant to the research on migration. The main reason is that the central part of the theory stresses the interactions at the various levels of our society through the spread of new ideas, norms, and values as insisted by Bongaarts and Watkins (1996). According to their argument, social interactions consist of “the exchange of information and ideas, the joint evaluation of their meaning in a particular context and social influence that constrains or encourages action.” Further, social interaction works through the channels: local, national, and global channels. The availability or fluidity of channels hastens or delays, for example, the pace of fertility decline contingent on the level of socioeconomic development. They assert that the degree of socioeconomic development is not enough to explain the decline in fertility in most countries by itself because social interactions at each level of a channel play a significant role in the transition. In sum, diffusion theory emphasizes the interactions at the multiple levels, which is also relevant to the event of migration and what migration brings to origin communities. Yet, this does not mean that internal migration has no significant effect on how people think and behave; as emphasized by Bongaarts and Watkins (1996), there are local channels as well as national or global channels. Their argument indicates that the size of the ideational impact of domestic migration would be substantially different from international migration since they are at different level of channels.

The elaboration of the perspective of diffusion theory and social interactions could be summarized into the concept of social remittances in migration studies. As

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values, in addition to financial remittances. Migrants with social remittance return and communicate with non-migrants in their households and neighborhoods. Yet, how much and what non-migrants would accept depends on the characteristics of recipients and remittance. For example, younger generations tend to accept new ideas and values significantly easier than older generations, especially when they are adapted to outside cultures from other countries especially through the form of mass media, such as songs and movies. But in the case that they are not accustomed to those new cultures, the larger the socioeconomic and cultural difference between a destination and an origin, the more difficult it is for recipients to accept these social remittances. In this sense, the gap between communities in the same country would be smaller than the gap between communities in different countries. Thus, the experiences from internal migration and international migration would bring different types of social consequences in tandem with economic consequences.

On the other hand, Robson and Nayak (2010) argues that international migrants tend to stay at destinations permanently and be detached from the community activities at origins as the duration of international migration increases. As a result, remaining families of international migrants are more likely to abandon what they have been doing for livelihoods, for example, agriculture or aquaculture, and to be dependent on remittances until they emigrate internationally as well. Moreover, young generations are more likely to do so due to the on-going momentum of migration initiated by social remittances from previous generations. This implies that migration, especially

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rather than to continue agricultural activities.

International migration, however, might not be always better off than domestic migration. In some cases, international migration is not a matter of choice, but a matter of an inevitable livelihood strategy. According to the 2014 briefing paper focusing on international migration in Nepal by the Overseas Development Institute (ODI), some household members are expected to migrate internationally due to a poor economic condition in a given region. However, based on the cases studies of ODI, international migration does not always help remaining households financially mainly due to loan payments, harsh working conditions and salary issues in destinations. International migration also puts some burdens on the shoulders of the remaining household members in terms of workload, especially spouses and children.

Based on these considerations, another hypothesis is derived. And the effects of domestic and international migrations on agricultural and energy transitions will be tested as an additional analysis.

HD: international migration would have stronger effects than domestic migration for agricultural and energy transition.

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Data Began in 1996, the data collection in Chitwan is a multifaceted project composed of several datasets. The following descriptions of the data come from Axinn et al. (2011).

Three stratums were defined based on the distance to the most developed urban city in Chitwan, Narayanghat: stratum 1 is the closest to Narayanghat, stratum 3 is the furthest from Narayanghat, and stratum 2 is between stratum 1 and stratum 3. Two stages are used to sample 171 neighborhoods considering the representation of each of the five major ethnic groups living in the survey area: high caste Hindus, hill Tibeto-Burmese (such as Gurung, Tamang, and Magar), indigenous Terai Tibeto-Burmese (such as Tharu, Darai, and Kumal), Newar, and other caste Hindus. By using the 1991 Nepal census data as a sampling frame, stage 1 sampling yielded a systematic sample of 10 settlements in each stratum, for a total of 30 settlements. Then, stage 2 sampling units are neighborhoods which are defined as clusters of approximately 5 to 15 households in close proximity to one another. In this way, 171 neighborhoods were systematically selected from three stratums at the initial stage of data collection. Due to budget constraints, however, Household Registry dataset uses 151 neighborhoods out of those 171 neighborhoods.

Over time, several datasets with different topics have been collected based on the sampled neighborhoods, and four of them will be used for this study: 1) Household Registry, 2) Household Agriculture and Consumption Survey, 3) Individual Questionnaire and Individual Life History Calendar, and 4) Neighborhood History

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dataset merging all the datasets except the Individual Life History Calendar. This dataset is used for the analysis testing the effects of the duration of monthly migration. The second main dataset is a dataset merging all the datasets. Because of the merge with the Individual Questionnaire, the number of cases of this dataset is smaller than the first one.

This dataset is used for the analysis testing the duration of yearly domestic and international migration. To simplify the analyses using multiple dependent variables, only those households that participated in all three time points of the Agricultural Consumption Survey (1996, 2001, and 2006) are included in the final sample. As a result, each analysis uses a sub-sample of these two main datasets.

The Household Registry dataset will mainly be used for monthly migration information and household size. This dataset was collected from February, 1997 to June, 2007, over 126 months at the individual level. The surveyors visited sampled households every three month, since February 1997, to gather information about the roster of all household members, monthly record of living arrangements, marital status, and childbearing experience of each household member. In the 1996 original study, 1,582 households and 4,646 individuals were surveyed; new households and individuals who moved into the 151 sampled neighborhoods between 1996 and 2008 were also included.

All the individuals in the initial 1,582 households were followed even if they moved out of the survey area. For new individuals in new households, however, they were not followed if they later left the neighborhood.

Despite the rich information about migration in the Household Registry, the one major drawback of the dataset is that it is impossible to distinguish domestic migration

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between migration and human activities as discussed before. To complement this drawback of the Household Registry, the Individual Life History Calendar will be used for the secondary analysis. The major differences between the Individual Life History Calendar and the Household Registry are; 1) the first one gathered yearly information about living arrangements, migration history including the name of country in the case of international migration, the purpose of migration, marriage, child birth, family planning, education, and occupation; 2) the Individual Life History Calendar was collected in 2008 and the respondents recalled migration history and the others, so the data is retrospective;

3) the individual survey was conducted only for those who aged between 15 and 34 at the time of survey, their spouses, their parents, and the respondents aged between 35 and 59.

Since the dataset contains the yearly information, not the monthly information like Household Registry, the effects of migration in previous years on agricultural and energy transitions would be assessed in the secondary analysis.

The Household Agriculture and Consumption Survey dataset will be mainly used for household capitals, agricultural activities and the modes of production. This dataset was collected in 1996, 2001, and 2006 at the household level. Each survey year includes detailed information about agricultural activities as well as the measurements of socioeconomic status of a household. Information about consumption, income and debt were added in 2001 and 2006 surveys.

The Individual Questionnaire dataset is at the individual level, and it will be used for obtaining the education level of each household member. The dataset includes the individual life history calendar which gathers the yearly information about age, migration

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and employment.

The Neighborhood History Calendar dataset will be mainly used to control for contextual effects. Initiated in 1995 and updated in 2006, this dataset includes the history of the previous fifty years of neighborhood access to electricity, schools, health services, bus services, grain mills, agricultural cooperatives, dairies, markets, banks, employment opportunities, small farmers’ development programs, women’s groups, youth groups, temples, and police stations in each of 171 sampled neighborhoods.

Research Design and Methods The analysis would be done in two parts: 1) the primary analysis using the first dataset having monthly migration history; 2) the secondary analysis using the second dataset having yearly migration history. As discussed, each analysis complements the other. The analysis will proceed directly from the hypotheses outlined above. Below, I describe the three sets of analyses designed to test the hypotheses. The time ordering of main measurements is described in Figure 2.

The Changes in Agricultural Activities. To test the effects of migration and household capitals on agricultural activities, I use data exclusively from the Household Registry and the Household Agriculture and Consumption Survey for the primary analysis. For the secondary analysis, the Individual Life History Calendar and the Household Agriculture and Consumption Survey will be used. The method of analysis is the first difference model (Liker, Augustyniak, and Duncan 1985). It is the most

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the effects of the variations in the independent variables on the variations in the dependent variable within a certain time frame. One of the advantages using first difference model is that it rules out time-independent household-level effects that were not measured or missed in the survey. Another advantage is that the fixed effects model is the same with the first difference model when there are only two time points.

Equation 1: ,3 = 0 + + 1 ,3−2 + 2 ,2 + ,3 Equation 2: ,2 = 0 + + 1 ,2−1 + 2 ,1 + ,2 Equation 3: (,3 − ,2 ) = 1 (,3−2 − ,2−1 ) + 2 (,2 − ,1 ) + (,3 − ,2 ) → ∆, = 1 ∆, + 2 ∆, + ∆, In the equations, M stands for migration, HC stands for household capitals, i indicates a household, t indicates survey time (t1=1996, t2=2001, t3=2006), stands for time-independent factor at the household level, indicates a coefficient, and u stands for errors. In detail, equation 1 specifies that agricultural activities in 2006 (time 3) are affected by the accumulated duration of migration between 2001 and 2006 and the household capitals in 2001 (time 2). Likewise, equation 2 specifies that agricultural activities in 2001 (time 2) are affected by the accumulated duration of migration between 1996 and 2001 and the household capitals in 1996. Last, subtracting equation 2 from equation 1 results in equation 3, which is the first difference model.

As you can see, the intercepts, 0, for equation 1 and 2 cancel out each other, and more importantly, time-independent factors at the household level, , that are omitted in

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specific time-independent unobserved factors in the first difference model. Finally, the first difference model clearly shows that the changes in agricultural activities between 2001 and 2006 are the results of the changes in migration and the changes in household capitals between 1996 and 2001.

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