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«A Dissertation Presented in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree Doctor of Philosophy Approved November 2014 by the Graduate ...»

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There were 141 households who moved from multiple energy sources to only traditional ones between 1996 and 2001, and 180 households between 2001 and 2006, while 94 and 116 households moved to the opposite direction in each time period, respectively. Going back to traditional energy sources indicate that the energy stack and ladder perspectives might not be enough to explain energy transition in developing countries; the livelihood perspective should be introduced here to understand the transition better. It is still true that availability of and accessibility to modern energy sources as well as income level matter as previous research shows, but it would be better understood in the framework of the livelihood perspective in that the livelihoods of rural households are dependent on the ever-changing surrounding environmental and socioeconomic conditions and household capitals reflect how they responded to societal changes. Therefore, I argue that energy sources a household uses are not fixed or only move upwards in the hierarchy as implied by the perspective of energy stack and ladder. What energy sources a household uses

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circumstances, and surrounding conditions, like any other livelihood transition. In other words, rural households juggle their resources, which can be replaced with household capitals in the perspective of livelihood approach, to adjust to their surrounding conditions, and the choice of primary energy sources is dependent upon it. Therefore, I insist that it is also important to examine the opposite direction of the transition: from modern energy sources to traditional energy sources.

Based on these considerations, I analyze two directions of energy transition in the next step of the analysis: 1) the transition from traditional energy sources to modern energy sources; 2) the transition from modern energy sources to traditional energy sources. Specifically, the first transition is the transition from only traditional energy sources to only modern energy sources or multiple energy sources. And the second transition is the transition from only modern energy sources or multiple energy sources to only traditional energy sources.

The results of event history analysis to assess the effects of migration and household capitals on the transition from traditional energy sources to modern ones are summarized in Table 15A. Model 1 only includes a variable measuring the accumulated duration of migration in the last five years before the event, and Model 2 includes all the household capitals in addition to migration. The results are presented as odds ratios, so a coefficient greater than one represents a positive effect that accelerates the rate of the transition, while a coefficient less than one represents a negative effect that delays the transition.

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likelihood of the transition from only traditional energy sources to modern or multiple energy sources by 1 percent. For example, for a household that has a migrant who was away for ten months prior to the period of risk, the likelihood of the household to use modern energy sources increases by 10% compared to other households without migration experience.

Not only migration, but also household capitals affect the transition as expected.

Among five household capitals, human, physical, social capitals affect the transition. The results in model 2 show that the number of household members under age 65 is negatively associated with the likelihood of the transition. This is probably due to the fact that one of the main traditional energy sources, fuel wood, is usually collected by young household members in most rural areas of developing countries. Chitwan is not an exception. One additional household member of young age, under 15, decreases the likelihood of the transition by 18% (1.00 - 0.82 = 0.18), and one additional household member of working age, between 15 and 65, decreases the likelihood by 13%. On the other hand, education is positively associated with the increase in the likelihood of the transition as expected; regardless of generation, one extra year in education increases the likelihood of the transition by 4%. It is very likely that education increases the chance of using consumer items as well as the familiarity to or necessity of them, and it naturally increases the chance of the transition.

Using more consumer items and better housing quality are positively associated with the increase in the likelihood of the transition from traditional energy sources to modern energy sources. One additional consumer item, such as radio and television,

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increases the likelihood by 10%.

Last, what energy sources other households use affect the decision making of a household on the switch of main energy source as well. One percent increase in the proportion of the households using modern energy sources increases the likelihood of the transition by 254%.

The results of the interactions between migration and household capitals on the transition from traditional energy sources to modern energy sources are summarized in Table 15B. Among the five capitals, physical and financial capitals show significant results. First, the interaction between migration and consumer items is visualized in Figure 24. The results tell us that when a household owns many consumer items, migration is positively associated with the transition from traditional energy sources to modern ones and significantly more than a household with fewer consumer items. Second, the result of interactions between migration and livestock is visualized in Figure 25.





When a household owns no livestock, for example, migration is positively associated with the transition to modern energy sources. On the contrary, when a household owns more valuable livestock, migration is negatively associated with the transition. The results imply that having many valuable livestock could be an indicator of a household substantially investing in agriculture, so they tend to stay in traditional energy sources and invest remittances from migration for other activities instead.

In sum, the analysis results support the hypotheses HC1a, HC1c, HC5, HC6-5, and HC6-7. In detail, the result of the number of household members of young age supports the hypothesis HC1a stating that households with many members of young age

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level of education supports the hypothesis HC1c stating that households with a highly educated member are positively associated with the transition to modern energy sources.

The result of the proportion of households using modern energy sources in the same neighborhood supports the hypothesis HC5 stating that households rich in social capital are positively associated with the transition to modern energy sources. The result of the interaction between migration and consumer items supports the hypothesis HC6-5 stating that migration is positively associated with the transition to modern energy sources in case a household possesses many consumer items. Last, the result of the interaction between migration and livestock supports the hypothesis HC6-7 stating that migration is negatively associated with the transition to modern energy sources in case a household raises many valuable livestock.

As a next stage of the analysis, I analyze the transition from traditional energy sources to each modern energy source: electricity, gas, and kerosene. The main reason of doing this analysis can be found in Table 14. As discussed, the pattern of the popularity of each energy source over time is very different from each other. More households use electricity as their main energy source over time, but not as many as expected. Kerosene was very popular in 1996, but the number of households using it decreased dramatically over time. On the other hand, the number of households using gas increased greatly.

The results of the multilevel event history analysis to assess the effects of migration and household capitals on the transition to electricity, gas, and kerosene are summarized in Table 15-1A, Table 15-2A, and Table 15-3A, respectively. Model

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years before the event, and Model 2 includes all the household capitals in addition to migration.

The results show that migration has a positive effect on the transition to gas and kerosene, but not electricity. Considering that gas and kerosene are purchasable at a market relatively easy, the positive relationships between migration and the use of those two modern energy sources seem relevant. The result of electricity suggests that it is a matter of more than money. In fact, even though the availability of and accessibility to electricity in Chitwan has reached over 95 percent since 1996, but the supply of electricity has never been stable. The stability issue is also related to environmental degradation, such as droughts and forest depletion (Setopati 2014). Besides migration, other results seem to stay the same in general.

Interaction results are presented in Table 15-1B, Table 15-2B and Table 15-3B. In general, the results are consistent with previous interaction results. First, the effect of the interaction between migration and household size of young age on energy transition from traditional energy sources to electricity is visualized in Figure 26.

When a household has no available labor in working age, migration is positively associated with the transition to electricity at a faster rate than a household with many members in the same age group. This result again confirms the importance of available household labor for the collection of traditional energy sources. The result of the interaction between migration and consumer items is visualized in Figure 27. When a household possesses no or one consumer item, migration does not seem to affect the transition from traditional energy sources to electricity. However, when a household does

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duration increases.

The result of the interaction between migration and education of the oldest on energy transition from traditional energy sources to gas is visualized in Figure 28.

With no previous migration experience, education affects the likelihood of the transition to gas, but as the duration of migration increases, the effect of education disappears. Last, the result of the interaction between migration and poultry on energy transition from traditional energy sources to kerosene is visualized in Figure 29. Again, possessing many poultry, a substantial investment in agriculture in other words, represses a positive association of migration with the transition to kerosene.

As a next step of the analysis, Table 16A shows the results of event history analysis on the transition from modern energy sources to traditional energy sources: the opposite direction. Essentially, the results are consistent with the results of the transition from traditional energy sources to modern energy sources except for a few factors. First, migration does not significantly affect the transition. Second, the number of household members does not affect the likelihood of the transition. Third, possessing bari (upland) land, which is considered to be less productive than khet (low irrigated land), increases the likelihood of the transition back to traditional energy sources though it is marginally significant. In sum, this result and the result of the interaction between migration and livestock in Figure 25 suggests that households that have already invested a lot of resources in agriculture tend to stay in the use of traditional energy sources. I speculate that they can acquire traditional energy resources, such as fuel wood, biomass or hay, relatively easier than those households without a significant possession of agricultural

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The result of the interaction between migration and education of the youngest household member is presented in Figure 30. When the youngest household member in a household is not educated at all, migration is negatively associated with the transition from modern energy sources to traditional ones. On the other hand, in the opposite situation, migration shows a positive association with the transition. This might mean that migration would support a household to stay where they are a little bit longer before they move to the next stage of energy use.

The last step of the analysis is to test the effects of domestic and international migrations on energy transition. The results show that domestic migration has a positive association with the transition from modern energy sources to traditional ones, and this is significant at the.05 level of significance. In detail, one additional year in the duration of domestic migration increases the likelihood of the transition by 35%. In addition, international migration also has a positive effect on the transition from traditional energy sources to gas, and this is significant at the.10 level of significance. One additional year in the duration of international migration increases the likelihood of the transition by 17%.

In sum, the results reassure the importance of available labor to collect traditional energy sources and the financial remittance from migration on energy transition.

In summary, the analysis results show significant associations between migration and the transition from traditional energy sources to modern energy sources, especially gas and kerosene. The results also show that available labor in a household, especially those of young age, tends to delay the transition to modern energy sources. In addition,

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Note: Only coefficients of migration, education of the oldest household member, and the interaction between those two are used for the computation.

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Note: Only coefficients of migration, education of the youngest household member, and the interaction between those two are used for the computation.

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The aim of this dissertation has been to investigate the influence of migration and household capitals on agricultural and energy transitions in the Chitwan Valley of Nepal.



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