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«NATIONAL RENEWABLE ENERGY LABORATORY RENEWABLE ENERGY OPPORTUNITY ASSESSMENT FOR USAID MEXICO November 2015 Andrea Watson, Ricardo Bracho, Rachel ...»

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The CRE is developing new market regulations, including an innovative financial • market for Clean Energy Certificates (CELs), to incentivize renewable energy investment and help meet Mexico’s clean energy goal.

The INECC has defined Mexico’s intended nationally determined contribution • (INDC) and is developing new evaluation procedures for the GOM’s climate activities.

4 Mexico faces significant challenges in implementing its vision for climate change

mitigation and energy reform, including:

The GOM needs to further develop staff with specialized expertise on various • topics, such as carbon markets, renewable portfolio standards, project finance, evaluation, and measurement, reporting and verification (MRV).

The energy sector requires detailed information on renewable energy resources • in the country, more sophisticated modeling and forecasting techniques, and the expertise to rapidly increase and integrate large amounts of renewable energy onto the grid.

There is a lack of funding for GHG mitigation measures, particularly for • communities and small- and medium-sized businesses, as well as a lack of awareness (especially in the banking sector) on the cost-effectiveness of energy efficiency measures.

1.3 Energy Reform Context 7 Before the energy reform, the Public Electricity Service Law (LSPEE) gave CFE complete responsibility for planning the National Electricity System (SEN), performing all acts related to providing the electric public service, and the responsibility to carry out all projects and works requiring planning, implementation, operation and maintenance of the SEN. 8 During this time, CFE expanded by following a state policy that had the goal of providing electricity to every potential consumer in the country. In addition, CFE was required to approve new projects that achieved the lowest short- and long-term costs, while utilizing a discount rate of 12 percent. 9 As a result of these policies, at the end of 2014, 98 percent of the Mexican population (119.9 million inhabitants) has access to electricity, through a CFE-owned transmission and distribution network that extends 877 kilometers throughout the national territory. 10 Under the pre-existing industry structure, public electricity service accounted for 86 percent of the total electricity generation in Mexico. Of this generation, CFE was responsible for 67 percent, while independent power producers (IPP), which had to sell their power to CFE accounted for the rest. 11 Private sector participation outside of the public service was allowed through special permits for cogeneration, generation for export purposes or self-supply power generation. This private sector generation accounted for 14.3% of power generation in 2014. 12 Under the pre-energy reform structure, CFE was also responsible for all of the transmission, distribution, and 7 In addition to citations, information included is from NREL note taking during meetings and recent conversations with government organizations.

8 “Programa de Desarrollo Del Sistema Electrico Nacional 2015 to 2029 PRODESEN” (SENER, July 2015), http://sener.gob.mx/res/index/PRODESEN%202015_2029.pdf.

9 SENER in a comment to the Baja California Sur report. SENER obtained the information directly from CFE who discussed it several times in various working groups.

10 “Programa de Desarrollo Del Sistema Electrico Nacional 2015 to 2029 PRODESEN.” 11 Percentages taken from the Ibid.

12 Ibid.

5 marketing activities of electrical power in Mexico. In addition, CFE controlled the expansion planning and construction of the transmission and distribution networks.

The enactment of the energy reform took into consideration the needs of a new economic environment requiring an optimal balance between competition, innovation, and technological development and the need for diversification of sources of clean and economical energy. The primary goals of the energy reform are to provide electricity at affordable prices for industry, commercial consumers, the countryside and individual families and to promote energy security for Mexico, while increasing system reliability and improving environmental sustainability.

With the 2013 adoption of the Energy Reform and its 2014 subsequent secondary legislation, Mexico pushed to adopt a number of complex changes to their electricity sector—creating a new wholesale electricity market, defining new transmission planning responsibilities, and establishing new clean energy incentives.

1.3.1 Wholesale Electricity Market Mexico’s new wholesale electricity market, which will start on January 2016, and the responsibility for its operations will fall to the newly created independent system operator, Centro Nacional de Control de Energía (CENACE), a former unit of CFE.

During the first year of the market operations, SENER will be responsible for conducting the market monitor activities and after the first year, this responsibility will move to CRE 13.

Some previously CFE-controlled activities are opening up to private sector participation and investment. The reform makes it easier for private sector generators to build new generation plants. In addition, Mexico enacted specific legislation to grow and regulate the geothermal industry in effort to grow this industry in Mexico. Under this legislation, the government has defined geothermal zones that CFE can explore and is opening other zones to private sector exploration. 14 In addition to operational control of the new wholesale electricity market, CENACE is responsible for the preparation and submission (to CRE and SENER) of transmission expansion plans. 15 Preparation of distribution network expansion plans is now the responsibility of each distribution company. For the moment, CFE owns all of the distribution assets, but private sector participation will also be possible in the future.





In the new wholesale market, generators, both from the private sector and the CFE, will submit bids to the wholesale market based on individual operating costs but will also be able to offer the electricity for sale directly to qualified users through the use of bilateral 13 “Mexico’s Energy Revolution Series: A Liberalized Electricity Sector” (Manatt Jones Global Strategies, April 2015), http://www.manatt.com/uploadedFiles/Content/5_Insights/White_Papers/MJGS-Mexico-Oil-and-GasExploration-and-Production.pdf.

14 SENER made the announcement on July 22, 2015.

15 Ley de la Industria Electrica. 2014. http://dof.gob.mx/nota_detalle.php?codigo=5355986&fecha=11/08/2014 6 contracts. 16 Qualified users that meet a specific consumption threshold can then buy directly from qualified generators or from the wholesale market. This threshold is expected to be 2 MW for the first eight months of the operation of the wholesale market and 1 MW starting on August 12th, 2016. 17 One role that remains unchanged is the role of CFE in the distribution grid. While new private distribution companies are expected to eventually access the market, CFE will continue to supply electricity at regulated rates to residential users and small- and medium-sized commercial and industrial users, also called “basic users,” 18 who cannot participate in the wholesale market.

1.3.2 Transmission Planning Before the reform, all activities including operation and planning were carried out by CFE. CFE was in charge of elaborating the Investment Program or Programa de Obras e Inversiones en el Sector Eléctrico (POISE). This Investment Program was revisited on an annual-basis and contained information regarding generating capacity that, according to CFE, was required to meet the forecasted demand. Along with this information, CFE included all information related to transmission infrastructure (including lines and substations) required to maintain the reliable and secure operation of the system. 19

POISE considered, among other things, the following basic information:

–  –  –

All infrastructure proposed in the POISE had to be evaluated by the Ministry of Finance (SHCP) and SENER. Under the former legal framework, CFE was obligated to submit to SHCP and SENER an economic and financial analysis in order to assess the cost 16 *Note: “Qualified user” refers to and end user such as existing self-supply users, cogeneration users and those participating in import production. Raquel Bierzwinsky. 2014. “Mexico Is Set to Open Its Power Sector - CFE, CENACE, Wholesale Generators, inside-the-Fence, Transmission, Retail, Electricity.” Chadbourne, Project Finance Newswire, June.

17 *Note - TRANSITIONAL ARTICLE 15 of the Electricity Industry Law indicates:.”May be included in the registry of Qualified Users: II. Load centers that report a demand equal to or greater than 3 Megawatts, during the first year of implementation of the Electricity Industry Act. This level is then reduced: a) At least to 2 megawatts at the end of the first year of implementation of the Electricity Industry Act, which took place on August 12th, 2014, and b) At least to 1 Megawatt at the end of the second year of implementation of the Electricity Industry Act” Official Diary of the Federation, August 11th 2014.

18 *Note: Basic users, or consumers, will not be able to participate in the wholesale market. The CFE will acquire electricity in the auction process to supply to these types of consumers. Raquel Bierzwinsky. 2014. “Mexico Is Set to Open Its Power Sector - CFE, CENACE, Wholesale Generators, inside-the-Fence, Transmission, Retail, Electricity.” Chadbourne, Project Finance Newswire, June.

19 “Programa de Desarrollo Del Sistema Electrico Nacional 2015 to 2029 PRODESEN.” 7 effectiveness of projects. The projects that were approved by SHCP and SENER were then published by CFE in the final version of the POISE.

Under the previous framework, CFE used the assistance of CRE only to provide information about permits indicating the expected dates by which projects would be ready to be interconnected to the grid. As a result, CRE’s role was passive and the legal framework did not require specific participation by the regulating body. Even though SENER was responsible with SHCP to review the POISE, it was SHCP who had the leading role.

Regarding transmission expansion or upgrades required for deployment of renewable energies, prior to the energy reform, a system called Temporada Abierta de Reserva de Capacidad de Transmisión y Transformación de Energía Eléctrica (TA) or in English, Open Season to Reserve Transmission Capacity and Transformation of the Electric Power (Open Season). Under this scheme, the government allowed private sector participation for financing, design, and construction of the transmission infrastructure, in collaboration with CFE. 20 The new transmission projects were then given to CFE as the owner.

With the passing of the energy reform and its secondary legislation, the Electric Industry Act (EIA) redefined the roles of CFE, CENACE, CRE and SENER. In the new legal framework the new National Expansion Program is called Programa de Desarrollo del Sistema Eléctrico Nacional (PRODESEN) and is the successor of the POISE.

Specific timelines must to be considered for the planning process. CENACE and the Distribution Companies (currently just CFE) are required to submit to both SENER and CRE, on February of every year, their expansion programs. Then, CRE has 30 business days to provide an opinion to SENER and to ask CENACE and Distribution Companies to make amendments if necessary. After that, SENER has another 30 business days to authorize the PRODESEN. The following figure shows the process to authorize the PRODESEN. 21 20 “Temporadas Abiertas de Reserva de Capacidad de Transmision y Transformacion.” 2012. CRE.http://www.cre.gob.mx/documento/2317.pdf.

21 “Temporadas Abiertas de Reserva de Capacidad de Transmision y Transformacion.” 2012. CRE.http://www.cre.gob.mx/documento/2317.pdf.

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Following the energy reform, when new renewable energy projects require access to new transmission infrastructure, renewable energy developers can request (after providing a series of studies and proof of financial commitment) that CENACE include the new transmission requirements for renewable energy projects into its expansion plan (PRODESEN). With this change, the new transmission infrastructure approved by SENER, would be paid by the government and not by the private sector, which was the case under the TA. 23 The transmission expansion plans prepared by CENACE now consider, among other things, the optimal generation projects that would meet the demand in the SEN and at the same time help achieve the clean energy objectives within the planning timeframe, the renewable energy potential in various zones of the country, and the infrastructure of the national gas pipeline network. In the near future, the private sector will also be able to participate in financing, building, and owning new transmission infrastructure through 22 Source: Comision Reguladora de Energia (CRE) 23 “Ministerio de Electricidad y Energia Renovable.” n.d.Ministerio de Electricidad y Energia Renovable.http://www.cenace.org.ec/.

–  –  –

1.3.3 Clean Energy Incentives In the past, Mexico has taken a number of actions to promote the use of renewable energy, resulting in one of the fastest growing wind markets in the world in 2009. Some of these actions included the Open Season fixed, low-cost wheeling charges for wind projects; and the energy bank. Major hydroelectric plants, a mature sector, currently make up three-quarters of clean energy production. The hydroelectric growth is expected to mainly come from small hydro projects as some large projects are finding opposition from local communities.

In the PRODESEN, SENER is estimating that in order to meet expected electricity demand growth for the period 2015-2029, 60 GW of additional capacity will be required, with an investment of 653 billion pesos 24. This additional power capacity is expected to come from conventional technologies (45.7% or 27,433 MW) and (54% or 32,552 MW)

from clean technologies. The estimated composition of the clean technologies include:



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