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«Mark Harrison Department of Economics University of Warwick Coventry, England CV4 7AL Tel +44 203 523030 Fax +44 203 523032 Note This is a ...»

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Source: RGAE, f. 7733, op. 36, d. 1892, 11. 75 (imports), 83 (outlays). Imported munitions and equipment include vehicles and parts. "Other" imports are horses. For imports in 1945 the calendar year is covered, not the first half. Navy items are excluded.

- 45 Table 7. Sources of USSR net material product (NMP) utilized, 1940-1945 (billion rubles) 1940 1942 1943 1944 1945

–  –  –

Source: taken or calculated from Gosudarstvennyi Arkhiv Rossiiskoi Federatsii (GARF), formerly Tsentral'nyi Gosudarstvennyi Arkhiv Oktiabr'skoi Revoliutsii SSSR (TsGAOR SSSR), f. 3922/4372, op. 4, d. 115, 11. 10-15. An accompanying report (11.

40-42) states that the excess of products utilized over domestic supply in 1945 is partly covered by "about 25 billion rubles" of imports, compared with 40 billion rubles of imports in 1944.

- 46 Table 8. The Soviet defence burden in the presence and hypothetical absence of aid and trade, 1942-1944 (billion rubles and 1937 factor costs)

–  –  –

Sources:

(A) Actual absorption (GDP plus net imports) and defence outlays are from table 4. Civilian outlays are total absorption less defence outlays, and are divided into gross investment and consumption. Gross investment is from Richard Moorsteen, Raymond P.

Powell, The Soviet Capital Stock, 1928-1962 (Homewood, Ill.: Irwin, 1966), 358, and Raymond P.

Powell, "The Soviet Capital Stock and Related Series for the War Years", in Two Supplements to Richard Moorsteen and Raymond P. Powell, The Soviet Capital Stock, 1928-1962 (New Haven, Conn.: Yale University, The Economic Growth Center, 1968), 21. Consumption (including nondefence government consumption) is the residual.

For purposes of further computation, civilian consumption can be expressed in rubles, at factor costs of 1937, per head of the population in nondefence employment (i.e. excluding Army and Navy personnel, calculated from Mark Harrison, "Soviet Production and Employment", table 2 (row 13, less row 7.1), with 1940 shown on the same basis as other

years), as follows:

- 47 Consumption per 1940 1942 1943 1944 worker in the nondefence sector 1978 1217 865 1078 The lowest figure of the series (that shown for

1943) is taken as some kind of absolute minimum.

Multiplied by nondefence employment in each year, this yields the row labelled "minimum" total consumption. Resources actually (or below, hypothetically) used for consumption above this level are shown as "surplus" consumption (zero in 1943).

(B) Hypothetical absorption is taken as equal to actual GDP (net imports are set at zero).

Defence outlays are calculated hypothetically as actual outlays, less the reduction in resources available (actual net imports) multiplied by the marginal response of actual defence outlays to actual absorption, 1942-44, found as follows.

(a) The marginal response of defence outlays to absorption, 1942-44, is estimated at... 0.49 (b) based on the total excess of defence outlays in 1943 and 1944 combined, over the 38.3 1942 level (billion rubles)...

(c) divided by the total excess of absorption in 1943 and 1944 combined, over the 1942 78.6 level (billion rubles).

Civilian outlays (total absorption, less defence outlays) are divided hypothetically between gross investment and consumption as follows. In 1942 gross investment could hardly have fallen further, so the remaining burden of reduced resources in 1942 is shown in reduced "surplus" consumption. In 1943, on the other hand, "surplus" consumption was already zero, but gross investment had begun to recover, so the remaining hypothetical burden is shown as having fallen on gross investment. In 1944 the burden is distributed between gross investment and "surplus" consumption as follows. Hypothetical gross investment is taken as actual investment, less the reduction in resources available (actual net imports) multiplied by the marginal response of actual gross investment to actual absorption, 1943-44, derived as follows.

(a) The marginal response of gross investment to absorption, 1943-44, is estimated at... 0.15 (b) that is, the change in gross investment 5.1 in 1944 over 1943 (billion rubles)...

(c) divided by the change in absorption in 1944 over 1943 (billion rubles)... 33.4 Hypothetical civilian consumption in 1944 is determined as a residual.

- 48 Table 9. Commodities in short supply, 1946:

Lend-lease deliveries in proportion to Soviet domestic output, 1944, by physical volume (per cent)

–  –  –

Source: GARF, f. 3922/4372, op. 4, d. 7, 11. 173-78.

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