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«Manuel Adelino, Duke University Antoinette Schoar, MIT and NBER Felipe Severino, MIT December, 2012 Abstract This paper explores the role of the ...»

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22 Table 3. Employment Growth and House Prices: Excluding Non-Tradable Industries and Restricting to Manufacturing The table shows two-stage least squares regressions of employment growth on house price growth instrumented with the elasticity of housing supply, indicator variables for each establishment size (not shown in the table) and interactions of house price growth with the size of establishments. Each observation is at a county, 4-digit NAICS industry, and establishment size level. All regressions are weighted by the number of households in a county as of 2000. House Price Growth is instrumented using the Saiz (2010) measure of elasticity of housing supply at an MSA level. Employment growth is the percentage change in employment between 2002 and 2007 estimated using County Business Patterns (CBP) data. Growth in House prices is the percentage change between 2002 and 2007, and each interaction is with a dummy indicator for the size of the establishment. All regressions include 4digit industry fixed effects. Column 1 shows the results when we exclude construction industries, column 2 excludes both construction and nontradable industries, column 3 includes only manufacturing industries and column 4 has manufacturing industries that are classified as purely “tradable” in Mian and Sufi (2011a). All regressions control for the natural logarithm of population, the percentage of the population with a college degree, the percentage of the labor force that is employed, the share of the population in the workforce, and the percentage of homes that are owner-occupied. All controls are at a county level for the year 2000 and are obtained using Census Bureau Data Summary Files. Standard errors are in parenthesis and are clustered by MSA. *, **, *** denote the statistical significance at 10, 5, and 1% levels, respectively.

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23 Table 4. House Price Growth and Creation of Establishments The table shows two-stage least squares regressions of establishment births and deaths on house price growth instrumented with the elasticity of housing supply. Each observation is at a county level for the regressions without sector fixed effects (odd numbered columns) and at a county and 2-digit NAICS industry level whenever we include fixed effects (even numbered columns). All regressions are weighted by the number of households in a county as of 2000. House Price Growth is instrumented using the Saiz (2010) measure of elasticity of housing supply at an MSA level. Births and deaths of establishments come from the Census Statistics of US Businesses and are summed between 2002 and 2007 and scaled by the number of establishments in a county as of 2002. Growth in House prices is the percentage change between 2002 and 2007, and each interaction is with a dummy indicator for the size of the establishment. Columns 1 and 2 shows the results for births of establishments, columns 3 and 4 show results for disappearance of establishments and columns 5 and 6 use the net creation of establishments as the dependent variable. The final four columns split the sample by the amount of capital necessary for starting a business and show results for establishment births. All regressions control for the natural logarithm of population, the percentage of the population with a college degree, the percentage of the labor force that is employed, the share of the population in the workforce, and the percentage of homes that are owner-occupied. All controls are at a county level for the year 2000 and are obtained using Census Bureau Data Summary Files. Standard errors are in parenthesis and are clustered by MSA. *, **, *** denote the statistical significance at 10, 5, and 1% levels, respectively.

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24 Table 5. Proprietorships and House Price Appreciation The table shows two-stage least squares regressions at a county level of employment growth on house price growth, indicator variables for each establishment size (not shown in the table) and interactions of house price growth with the size of establishments. Proprietorships are establishments with zero employees. Each observation is at a county and establishment size level. All regressions are weighted by the number of households in a county as of 2000. House Price Growth is instrumented using the Saiz (2010) measure of elasticity of housing supply at an MSA level. Employment growth is the percentage change in employment between 2002 and 2007 estimated using County Business Patterns (CBP) data except in the case of proprietorships. The data on growth in proprietorships is obtained from the Bureau of Economic Analysis in the first column and from the Census in columns 2 through 4. All regressions control for the natural logarithm of population, the percentage of the population with a college degree, the percentage of the labor force that is employed, the share of the population in the workforce, and the percentage of homes that are owner-occupied. All controls are at a county level for the year 2000 and are obtained using Census Bureau Data Summary Files. Standard errors are in parenthesis and are clustered by MSA. *, **, *** denote the statistical significance at 10, 5, and 1% levels, respectively.

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25 Table 6. Employment Growth, Firm Size and House Price Appreciation, Crisis Period (2007-2009) The table shows two-stage least squares regressions of employment growth between 2007 and 2009 on house price growth for the previous 5 years (2002-2007), indicator variables for each establishment size (not shown in the table) and interactions of house price growth with the size of establishments. All regressions are weighted by the number of households in a county as of 2000. House Price Growth is instrumented using the Saiz (2010) measure of elasticity of housing supply at an MSA level. Employment growth is the percentage change in employment between 2007 and 2009 estimated using County Business Patterns (CBP) data. Growth in House prices is the percentage change between 2002 and 2007, and each interaction is with a dummy indicator for the size of the establishment. Columns 1 and 2, All Industries, shows the results for the whole sample of firms (first the weighted least squares results and then the IV), columns 3 through 6 show the coefficients split by the start-up capital amount. The omitted category refers to firms with 50 or more employees. The first column for each sample of industries is aggregated at the county and establishment size level, whereas the second column is at the county, establishment size and industry level, and includes industry fixed effects. All regressions control for the natural logarithm of population, the percentage of the population with a college degree, the percentage of the labor force that is employed, the share of the population in the workforce, and the percentage of homes that are owner-occupied. All controls are at a county level for the year 2000 and are obtained using Census Bureau Data Summary Files. Standard errors are in parenthesis and are clustered by MSA. *, **, *** denote the statistical significance at 10, 5, and 1% levels, respectively.





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26 Table 7. Total Employment, Unemployment and Migration The table shows two-stage least squares regressions at a county level of the total growth in employment, unemployment, the change in the unemployment rate and net migration on house price growth between 2002 and 2007. All regressions are weighted by the number of households in a county as of 2000. House Price Growth is instrumented using the Saiz (2010) measure of elasticity of housing supply at an MSA level. Total Employment is estimated using County Business Pattern data on the number and size of establishments. Unemployment and Unemployment Rate are obtained using Bureau of Labor Statistics Local Area estimates. Net Migration is obtained from the IRS county-to-county migration data series. Net Migration is estimated by county using inflows of taxpayers minus outflow of taxpayers in a year as a proportion of non-migrants (i.e. people that filed in the same county in t-1 and t). For each dependent variable the first column shows the results for the regressions without controls, and the second column shows the coefficients controlling for log of population, the percentage of the population with a college degree, the percentage of the labor force that is employed, the share of the population in the workforce, and the percentage of homes that are owner-occupied. All controls are at a county level for the year 2000 and are obtained using Census Bureau Data Summary Files. Standard errors are in parenthesis and are clustered by MSA. *, **, *** denote the statistical significance at 10, 5, and 1% levels, respectively.

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Table A1. Employment Growth, Firm Size and House Price Appreciation: Individual Industries by Firm Size The table shows two-stage least squares regressions at a county level of employment growth on house price growth split by size of establishment.

All regressions are weighted by the number of households in a county as of 2000. House Price Growth is instrumented using the Saiz (2010) measure of elasticity of housing supply at an MSA level. Employment growth is the percentage change in employment between 2002 and 2007 estimated using County Business Patterns (CBP) data. Growth in House prices is the percentage change between 2002 and 2007, and each interaction is a dummy indicator for the size of the establishment. All regressions include 4-digit industry fixed effect and control for log of population, the percentage of the population with a college degree, the percentage of the labor force that is employed, the share of the population in the workforce and the percentage of homes that are owner-occupied. We drop the top and bottom one percentile of the change in employment in each county, industry and establishment category. Standard errors are in parenthesis and are clustered by MSA. *, **, *** denote the statistical significance at 10, 5, and 1% levels, respectively.

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28 Table A2. Robustness Test: Difference between High and Low Start-Up capital The table shows two-stage least squares regressions at a county level of employment growth on house price growth split by size of establishment and interacted with a High Startup Capital indicator (indicator itself not shown). High Startup Capital is defined as 4-digit industries for which the amount of capital to start the firm is higher than the median for all industries. All regressions are weighted by the number of households in a county as of 2000.

House Price Growth is instrumented using the Saiz (2010) measure of elasticity of housing supply at an MSA level. Employment growth is the percentage change in employment between 2002 and 2007 estimated using County Business Patterns (CBP) data. Growth in House prices is the percentage change between 2002 and 2007, and each interaction is a dummy indicator for the size of the establishment. All regressions include 4-digit industry fixed effect and control for log of population, the percentage of the population with a college degree, the percentage of the labor force that is employed, the share of the population in the workforce, and the percentage of homes that are owner-occupied. We drop the top and bottom one percentile of the change in employment in each county, industry and establishment category. Standard errors are in parenthesis and are clustered by MSA. *, **, *** denote the statistical significance at 10, 5, and 1% levels, respectively.

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