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«Edited by ANNE MASON Research Fellow, Centre for Health Economics University of York and ADRIAN TOWSE Director, Office of Health Economics Radcliffe ...»

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The effects can also be experienced many times, as in the case of repeat victimisation (or just by vividly recalling the episode as some PTSD sufferers do). On the basis of existing evidence, it is difficult to predict the direction for multiple victimisations. Additional injuries might have an increasing marginal

142 THE IDEAS AND INFLUENCE OF ALAN WILLIAMS

effect, but the UK criminal compensation tariff seems to take the opposite view, where the most severe injury is taken as a reference point and additional injuries are included at reduced rates. Therefore, we need to elicit valuations from those with repeated (real or perceived) exposure to crime.

There is also the need to consider the effect that the criminal justice system may have on how people react to criminal victimisation. There are parallels here with health, where the process of health care may affect people’s response to treatment, but the effects would again seem to be more pronounced in the context of crime, where the sentence given to the perpetrator of the crime can have an important effect on how well the victim deals with the crime. This is recognised by the increasing interest in ‘restorative justice’, which brings victims and offenders together in order to allow victims greater voice in the criminal justice system.

Once robust measures of the individual losses in well-being from crime and the fear of crime have been developed, there will be the need to determine the social value of these losses. There are again strong parallels to health here, where the development and use of QALYs has led to questions about whether it is appropriate for policy purposes to assume that ‘a QALY is a QALY is a QALY’, irrespective of the characteristics of its recipient. While this represents the default position adopted by the National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE) in its evaluation of healthcare technologies, there is ongoing empirical research into its validity. Developing an equity-weighted measure of public safety will be particularly important given the very unequal distribution of the effects of crime across society. While most of us can expect to get ill and need health care at some point in our lives, crime is heavily concentrated in certain geographical areas, and within those areas on certain households and individuals (Pease, 2001).

But the primary need is to develop a robust measure of public safety. In short, what is required is an ‘EQ-5D for crime’. We have recently co-ordinated an ESRC-funded seminar series on ‘Crime, insecurity and well-being: an economic approach’, which has many parallels to the EuroQol group in that it has brought together academics from a range of disciplines, and policy makers, to consider how best to describe and value the losses in well-being from crime in order to inform public sector resource-allocation decisions. Alan attended some of the earlier seminars and we believe he would be pleased to hear that we are planning to take the empirical research forward through grant proposals.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

We would like to acknowledge Alan Williams for inspiring our (academic) interest in crime in the first place. Many of the ideas in the paper are the result of working with Graham Loomes and Tessa Peasgood on two Home Office reports on the intangible costs of crime and the fear of crime. We have

THE MEASUREMENT AND VALUATION OF PUBLIC SAFETY 143

also been influenced by discussions as part of an ESRC seminar series on crime, insecurity and well-being, where the input of Simon Moore and Joanna Shapland has been particularly helpful. The usual disclaimers apply.

REFERENCES Adler M (2004) Fear assessment: cost–benefit analysis and the pricing of fear and anxiety. Chicago-Kent Law Review 79: 977–1053.

Arrow K, Solow R, Portney PR et al. (1993) Report of the NOAA Panel on Contingent Valuation. Federal Register 58: 4601–14.

Atkinson G, Dubourg R and Mourato S (2004) Market-based approaches to valuing non-market economic impacts. Paper presented at First ESRC Seminar on Crime, insecurity, and well-being: an economic approach. Sheffield: Centre for Well-being in Public Policy, University of Sheffield.

Bannister J and Fyfe H (2001) Introduction: fear and the city, Urban Studies 38: 807–13.

Carson RT, Flores N and Meade NF (2001) Contingent valuation: controversies and evidence. Environmental and Resource Economics 19: 173–210.

Clark AE and Oswald AJ (2002) A simple statistical method for measuring how life events affect happiness. International Journal of Epidemiology 31: 1139–44.

Cohen MA, Rust RT, Steen S and Tidd ST (2004) Willingness-to-pay for crime control programs. Criminology 42: 89–109.

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values. In: Hausman J (ed.) Contingent Valuation: a critical assessment. Amsterdam:

North Holland, pp. 3–38.

Ditton J, Bannister J, Gilchrist E and Farrall S (1999) Afraid or angry? Recalibrating the ‘fear’ of crime. International Review of Victimology 6: 83–99.

Dolan P (2000) The measurement of health-related quality of life for use in resource allocation decisions. In: Culyer AJ and Newhouse J (eds) Health Care, Handbook of Health Economics, Amsterdam: Elsevier, pp. 1723–60.





Dolan P, Loomes G, Peasgood T and Tsuchiya A (2005) Estimating the intangible victim costs of crime. British Journal of Criminology 45: 958–76.

Dolan P, Netten A, Shapland J and Tsuchiya A (2007) Towards a preference-based measure of the impact on well-being of crime and the fear of crime. International Review of Victimology (in press).

Dolan P and Peasgood T (2006) Estimating the economic and social costs of the fear of crime. British Journal of Criminology 47: 121– 32.

Dubourg R, Hamed J and Thorns J (2005) The Economic and Social Costs of Crime against Individuals and Households 2003–4. Home Office Online Report, 30/05.

Available at: www.homeoffice.gov.uk/rds/pdfs05/rdsolr3005.pdf Farrall S and Gadd D (2004) Evaluating Crime Fears: a research note on a pilot study to improve the measurement of the ‘fear of crime’ as a performance indicator. Unpublished paper, Department of Criminology, Keele University.

144 THE IDEAS AND INFLUENCE OF ALAN WILLIAMS

Hale C (1995) Fear of crime: a review of the literature. International Review of Victimology 4: 79–150.

HM Treasury (2003) The Green Book: appraisal and evaluation in central government.

London: The Stationery Office. Available at: http://greenbook.treasury.gov.uk/ Loomes G (2004) Valuing Reductions in the Risk of Being aVictim of Crime: the ‘willingness to pay’ approach to valuing the ‘intangible costs’ of crime. Paper presented at the First ESRC Seminar on Crime, Insecurity, and Well-being: an economic approach.

Centre for Well-being in Public Policy, University of Sheffield, January 2004.

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Pease K (2001) Distributive justice and crime, European Journal on Criminal Policy and Research 9: 413–25.

Semmens N (2004) The Intangible Costs of Crime: why the fear of crime causes us a problem? Paper presented at the Second ESRC Seminar on Crime, Insecurity, and Well-being: an economic approach. Centre for Well-being in Public Policy, University of Sheffield, January 2004.

Shapland J and Hall M (2004) What do we Know about the Effects of Crime on Victims?

Paper presented at the Second ESRC Seminar on Crime, Insecurity, and Wellbeing: an economic approach. Centre for Well-being in Public Policy, University of Sheffield, January 2004.

Shapland J, Willmore J and Duff P (1985) Victims in the Criminal Justice System.

Aldershot: Gower.

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In: Oliver A (ed.) Personal Histories in Health Research. London: The Nuffield Trust, pp. 191–206.

Winkel F (1998) Fear of crime and criminal victimization: testing a theory of psychological incapacitation of the ‘stressor’ based on downward comparison processes. British Journal of Criminology 38: 473–84.

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THE MEASUREMENT AND VALUATION OF PUBLIC SAFETY 145

APPENDIX: EXAMPLE CRIME STATE CLASSIFICATION SYSTEM

We will describe some states that you may find yourself in because of crime.

When we say ‘because of crime’, this can be caused by being a victim of a criminal offence, or by witnessing a criminal act first hand, or by simply hearing about a crime on television. Also, the crime can be violent and cause injuries, or non-violent and only involve loss in property. Such experiences will affect people in different ways. Here we are just describing the effects of the experience.

The first is physical health problems A No physical health problems B Mild problems with physical health (e.g. difficulty running fast; limited hearing) C Moderate problems with physical health (e.g. use a stick to walk around;

moderate intermittent pain) D Extreme problems with physical health (e.g. use a wheelchair; severe pain) The second one is mental health problems A No mental health problems B Mild problems with mental health (e.g. feel somewhat anxious; mild depression) C Moderate problems with mental health (e.g. occasional anxiousness;

persistent mild irritability) D Extreme problems with mental health (e.g. severe depression;

hallucination) The third is constraints on behaviour A No constraints on behaviour (e.g. I can do what I want and go where I want) B Mild constraints on behaviour (e.g. there are some constraints on what I do and there are a few places I cannot go) C Moderate problems with control (e.g. there are many things I cannot do and a number of places I cannot go) D Extreme problems with control (e.g. I can do hardly anything I would like to and there are very few places I can go) The fourth is how you relate to others A No relational problems B Mild relational problems (e.g. feel that other people will let me down) C Moderate relational problems (e.g. mistrust of strangers; unease when out and about in the community) D Extreme relational problems (e.g. mistrust of intimate family members; feel completely alone all the time)

146 THE IDEAS AND INFLUENCE OF ALAN WILLIAMS

The fifth is how vulnerable you feel A No vulnerability problems B Mild vulnerability because of crime (e.g. sometimes just worry about getting things wrong) C Moderate vulnerability problems because of crime (e.g. occasionally worry that everything could be lost) D Extreme vulnerability problems because of crime (e.g. feel strongly that something is bound to go seriously wrong and nothing can be done about it) CHAPTER 13 Discussion of Paul Dolan and Aki Tsuchiya’s paper: ‘The measurement and valuation of public safety’... Martin Buxton As the authors suggest, this paper would almost certainly have pleased Alan Williams in the way it takes the concept of the QALY and begins to explore how it, or something like it, might be applied to an area of public spending other than health care. Alan’s early involvement with the Treasury meant that he was well aware of the need to consider value for money in all aspects of the public sector. However, I suggest, that he, like me, would have wanted to contextualise this work as part of a wider, more ambitious agenda that could lead to a methodology for comparing cost-effectiveness across a variety of areas of public sector spending.

As it stands, the preliminary descriptive system proposed by Dolan and Tsuchiya (and set out in the Appendix to their paper) for what Alan Williams called their SALY (safety-adjusted life year) bears a strong family resemblance to the EQ-5D health-related quality of life descriptive system.* It sets out to provide a classification system that ‘allows the different attributes of well-being that are affected by crime to be combined into overall “crime states”’. In this paper setting out early ideas, many of the details of the valuation process are still unclear. They do however propose a familiar process for the valuation of states relative both to each other and to the anchor points of, at the top end, no problems related to any of the dimensions characterising the effects of crime and, at the other end, death. They suggest that this may have to be ‘a natural death’, to allow for the likely possibility that death as a result of crime is perceived as worse than death by illness or accident.

The precise relationship of this new measure to the EQ-5D (or other existing QALY measures used in health) is unclear. Indeed it is not explicit * For a description of the EQ-5D system, and its development, see for example Williams (1997).

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