«2016 / Terrorism 2.0: The Rise of the Civilitary Battlefield 199 ARTICLE Terrorism 2.0: The Rise of the Civilitary Battlefield Gil Avriel* * Legal ...»
Before concluding, there is a need to emphasize that this Article limits its exploration to the six territorial terrorist groups analyzed above, but the list of globally active groups is far longer. Groups in countries like Libya, Afghanistan, Pakistan, and others present a similar threat. For example, Libya is relatively close geographically to the European Union. If a Model III territorial terrorist group were to operate in Libya, its terroballistic capabilities could threaten E.U.
soil.221 Based on Civilitary Theory analysis, once a terrorist organization evolves and becomes territorial, movement from Model I to II and III is just a matter of time. The European Union should take quite seriously the threat coming from Libya.222
IV. The Future Use of Civilitary Theory
Our thinking about the fight against terrorism is often hampered by the tension between continuity and change. We tend to embrace the known past and hold onto it, sometimes too tightly.223 But thinking about the evolution of certain terrorist groups has to be based on more than extrapolating from history and the continued use of outdated terminology that no longer captures the changing reality.224 Nafeesa Syeed, Saudis Intercepted Scud Missile Shot Over Border by Houthis, BLOOMBERG BUS. ( ug. 26, 2015, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-08-26/houthi-rebels-sayA ) they-fired-scud-missile-into-saudi-arabia.
See Is Libya the Next Stronghold of the Islamic State? FOREIGN POLICY (March 2, 2015), http://foreignpolicy.com/2015/03/02/is-libya-the-next-stronghold-of-the-islamic-state/.
See David D. Kirkpatrick, Isis’ Grip On Libyan City Gives It A Fallback Option, THE NEW YORK TIMES (Nov. 28, 2015), http://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/29/world/middleeast/isis-grip-onlibyan-city-gives-it-a-fallback-option.html?emc=edit_th_20151129&nl=todaysheadlines&nlid= 70354492 and compare with The Editorial Board, Opening a New Front Against ISIS in Libya, THE NEW YORK TIMES (Jan. 26, 2016) http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/26/opinion/opening-anew-front-against-isis-in-libya.html.
See F. Hoffman, The Great Revamp: 11 Trends Shaping the Future of Conflict, WAR ON THE ROCK (Oct. 8, 2014), http://warontherocks.com/2014/10/the-great-revamp-11-trends-shapingfuture-conflict/.
240 Harvard National Security Journal / Vol. 7 We may be facing a new era. In the Middle East and Africa, we are witnessing similar new patterns in which traditional terrorist groups evolve from non-territorial to territorial entities that also govern the lives of civilians. They terrorize civilians not only within their own borders, but also in nearby states and across the globe. When states realize this threat and use air campaigns against these groups, the groups acquire ballistic capabilities and embed the weapons in densely populated residential areas to shield them from attacks and to shoot from these residential areas onto civilians.
As demonstrated, each of the six territorial terrorist groups—ISIL, Boko Haram, Hamas, Hezbollah, Ansar Bayt al-Maqdis, and the Huthies in Yemen— has already evolved, although each at its own pace. Exploring these groups in an organized and structured way, as Civilitary Theory does, reveals similar patterns of behavior. These patterns are identified, explained, labeled, and demonstrated in a way that can better capture the present state of play between the international community and radical forces that are rising in the Middle East, Africa and other places.
Civilitary Theory can open the door to further interdisciplinary scholarship and research. It poses a number of fundamental questions in key areas of interest.
National security scholars and policy advisors can explore its impacts on national security strategy and decision-making at the highest level. Experts on terrorism can deepen the analysis on the notion of territorial terrorist groups and the classification of such groups as Model I, II, or III.
Diplomats and speech writers can better recognize the new pattern of terrorism and also reevaluate the use of certain terms in the common diplomatic and public jargon. Foreign affairs policy specialists, legal scholars and military experts may utilize the theory to develop scholarly work in the realm of international relations, international law and the law of armed conflict.
Journalists, editors and media experts may use this analytic framework to generate inclusive journalism and better analyze the new reality in the global fight against terrorism.
Further development of analytic frameworks, including Civilitary Theory, will help the international community to forecast future trends of violence in the 21st century and build contemporary national security strategies that better