«2016 / Terrorism 2.0: The Rise of the Civilitary Battlefield 199 ARTICLE Terrorism 2.0: The Rise of the Civilitary Battlefield Gil Avriel* * Legal ...»
Territorial terrorist groups also terrorize civilians outside the territorial borders the groups have established. Their activities in nearby states include sending suicide cars or bombers to explode in markets, coffee shops, public transportation or shopping centers; shooting at civilians, or slaughtering men, women, and children with guns, knives, axes, or machetes. ISIL, originally from Iraq, terrorizes civilians in Syria. It has also claimed responsibility for suicide bombings in Lebanon,83 terrorist attacks in Saudi Arabia84 and car bombings in See Robert Fisk, Syria Civil War: Civilians in Damascus Pay the Price for Those in the Provinces in Conflict's Balance of Horror, THE INDEPENDENT (Aug. 18, 2015), http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/syria-civil-war-civilians-in-damascus-pay-the-price-forthose-in-the-provinces-in-conflicts-balance-of-horror-10461216.html.
Isis Claims Responsibility as Suicide Bombers Kill Dozens in Beirut, THE GUARDIAN (Nov. 13, 2015), http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/nov/12/beirut-bombings-kill-at-least-20-lebanon.
Jack Moore, ISIS Attack Saudi Border Post and Infiltrate Town, NEWSWEEK (Feb. 28, 2015), http://www.newsweek.com/isis-attack-saudi-border-post-and-infiltrate-town-302652; see also ISIL Claims Deadly Attack on Saudi Forces at Mosque, AL JAZEERA (Aug. 7, 2015), http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2015/08/suicide-attack-mosque-saudi-arabia-southwesthtml.
218 Harvard National Security Journal / Vol. 7 Libya.85 Boko Haram from Nigeria attacks civilians in neighboring Chad,86 Cameroon87 and Niger.88 Ansar Bayt al-Maqdis (from the Sinai Peninsula), Hamas (from Gaza); and Hezbollah (from Lebanon) all shoot rockets into densely populated residential areas in Israel and commit terrorist attacks inside Israel (which borders all three areas). The Houthis in Yemen have also launched Katyusha rockets and even several Scud missiles into Saudi Arabia.89 In the third element of the strategy, some terroristates are part of a global terrorist chain that facilitates or executes terrorist attacks across the globe.
Hezbollah has established an External Security Organization (ESO) and has used it to execute numerous terrorist attacks around the world.90 ISIL uses transnational fighters91 to conduct terrorist attacks.92 For example, an attack in Sydney, Australia was carried out in December 2014 by a terrorist with possible links to ISIL. In February 2015, Australian counterterrorism police stated that they had ISIS: We Carried Out Deadly Suicide Bombings in Libya, CBS (Feb. 20, 2015), http://www.cbsnews.com/news/isis-we-carried-out-deadly-suicide-bombings-in-libya/ (“[M]ultiple suicide car bombings struck an eastern Libyan town, killing at least 45 people on Friday not far from a main base of the Libyan offshoot of the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS). The group claimed responsibility for the attack, saying it came in retaliation for recent Egyptian airstrikes that avenged the beheading of 21 Christian hostages by Libyan Islamic State militants.”).
Nigeria's Boko Haram Militants Attack Chad for First Time, BBC (Feb. 13, 2015), http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-31453951.
Boko Haram Crosses Border, Kills About 30 in Northern Cameroon, CNN (Sept. 4, 2015), http://edition.cnn.com/2015/09/03/africa/boko-haram-cameroon-violence/.
See Yaroslav Trofimov, Expanding Beyond Nigeria, Boko Haram Threatens Region, THE WALL ST. J. (Dec. 3, 2015), http://www.wsj.com/articles/expanding-beyond-nigeria-boko-haramthreatens-region-1449138601.
Abdullah al-Shihri, Houthi Rebels Fire Scud Missile From Yemen Into Saudi Arabia, THE WASHINGTON POST (June 6, 2015), https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/houthi-rebels-firescud-missile-from-yemen-into-saudi-arabia/2015/06/06/00e39c44-0c89-11e5-a7adb430fc1d3f5c_story.html; see also Nafeesa Syeed, Saudis Intercepted Scud Missile Shot Over Border by Houthis, BLOOMBERG ( ug. 26, 2015 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015A 08-26/houthi-rebels-say-they-fired-scud-missile-into-saudi-arabia.
See Hizballah’s External Security Organization, AUSTRALIAN NATIONAL SECURITY (May 2, 2015), http://www.nationalsecurity.gov.au/Listedterroristorganisations/Pages/HizballahsExternal SecurityOrganisationESO.aspx (noting that ESO continues to operate on a global basis gathering intelligence to be used in terrorist attack planning, collecting money by both legal and illegal methods, recruiting and training terrorists and acquiring weapons).
See Guillaume Corneau-Tremblay, Combattants Transnationaux: Implications, Réseaux et Acteurs (In English: Transnational fighters: Implications, Actors and Networks) (April 18, 2015), http://www.cms.fss.ulaval.ca/recherche/upload/terrorisme/fichiers/combattants_transnationaux_:_i mplications,_reseaux_et_acteurs.pdf.
See Secretary-General’s Remarks to Security Council High-Level Summit on Foreign Terrorist Fighters (Sept. 24, 2014), http://www.un.org/sg/STATEMENTS/index.asp?nid=8040 (noting that the U.N.’s Al Qaeda-Taliban Monitoring Team estimates that more than 13,000 foreign terrorist fighters from over 80 Member States have joined ISIL and the Al Nusra Front); see also Tina S.
Kaidanow, Al-Qaida, the Islamic State, and the Future of the Global Jihadi Movement, U.S. DEP’T OF STATE (Sept. 16, 2015); Foreign Fighters Are Still Able to Travel to War Zones Despite Efforts to Halt Flow, THE WALL ST. J. (Oct. 27, 2015), http://www.wsj.com/articles/u-n-countries-cantstop-flow-of-foreign-fighters-to-war-zones-1445958056.
2016 / Terrorism 2.0: The Rise of the Civilitary Battlefield 219 thwarted an additional, imminent terrorist attack in Sydney linked to Islamic State.93 ISIL has developed a specific group within its organization dedicated to launching terrorist attacks in Western Europe and in the United States.94 In November 2015, ISIL claimed responsibility95 for a series of unprecedented terrorist attacks in Paris that claimed the lives of more than 130 civilians and injured another 350 people.96 How do states respond to these terrorist activities? During Model II of Civilitary Theory, these terrorist attacks and atrocities present a threat to international peace and security.97 Realizing the risks, some states have shifted toward a more proactive national security approach. Several states are willing to use force—asserting their right of individual or collective self-defense—in order to secure their local and regional interests.
Once the threat becomes imminent, some use surgical airstrikes against members and infrastructures of territorial terrorist groups.98 Some members of ISIL who suffered from the U.S. led coalition shared their frustration in media interviews. “We were inside Ayn Al-Islam [near Kobani],” one told CNN, “and we occupied more than 70 [percent of the area], but the airstrikes did not leave Lincoln Feast, Australian Anti-Terror Police Say Imminent ISIS-Linked Attack Thwarted, REUTERS (Feb. 11, 2015), http://uk.reuters.com/article/2015/02/11/uk-australia-security-policeidUKKBN0LE2VB20150211.
Brian Ross, Paris Attacks: ISIS Has New External Operations Unit, Officials Say, ABC NEWS (Nov. 15, 2015), http://abcnews.go.com/International/paris-attacks-isis-external-operations-unitofficials/story?id=35215198.
Rukmini Callimachi, ISIS Claims Responsibility, Calling Paris Attacks ‘First of the Storm’, N.Y. TIMES (Nov. 14, 2015), http://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/15/world/europe/isis-claimsresponsibility-for-paris-attacks-calling-them-miracles.html.
Adam Chandler, Krishnadev Calamur, and Matt Ford, The Paris Attacks: The Latest, THE ATLANTIC (Nov. 22, 2015), http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2015/11/parisattacks/415953/.
See Secretary General Ban Ki Moon to the General Assembly “From Turmoil to Peace,” U.N.
(Sept. 24, 2015), http://www.un.org/sg/STATEMENTS/index.asp?nid=8037 (“[I]n Iraq and Syria, we see new depths of barbarity with each passing day, and devastating spill-over effects across the region.... These extremist groups are a clear threat to international peace and security that requires a multi-faceted international response.”).
See, e.g., Remarks by President Obama on the United Nations General Assembly, THE WHITE HOUSE (Sept. 24, 2014), https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2014/09/24/remarkspresident-obama-address-united-nations-general-assembly (“We will use our military might in a campaign of airstrikes to roll back ISIL.”); Tim Cocks, Nigeria's President Orders Full Scale Offensive On Boko Haram, ROUTERS (May 29, 2014), http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/05/29/ us-nigeria-girls-idUSKBN0E90PE20140529; Felix Onuah, Nigeria Sends in Warplanes Against Boko Haram in Northeast, REUTERS (Sept. 5, 2014), http://af.reuters.com/article/topNews/ idAFKBN0H01LQ20140905; Saudi Arabia Escalates Its Military Campaign, THE ECONOMIST (Sept. 10, 2015), http://www.economist.com/news/middle-east-and-africa/21663988-yemendescending-prolonged-uncontrollable-war-saudi-arabia-escalates-its-military; Nathan Hodge, Global Anti-ISIS Alliance Begins to Emerge: Paris Attacks Spur Cooperation Between Russia and U.S.-Led Coalition Against Islamic State, THE WALL ST. J. (NOV. 17, 2015), http://www.wsj.com/articles/global-anti-isis-alliance-begins-to-emerge-1447806527.
220 Harvard National Security Journal / Vol. 7 any building standing, they destroyed everything.”99 In addition, the Russian Air Force has further intensified its airstrikes in Syria100 after ISIL claimed responsibility for the Russian charter jet crash in Egypt that killed 224 passengers and crew.101 It should be noted that, at this stage, most states usually intervene through air campaigns but refrain from “boots on the ground”102 or “enduring offensive ground combat operations.”103 C. Civilitary Model III: Acquiring and Using Ballistic Missiles and Embedding Them in Densely Populated Residential Areas Territorial terrorist groups quickly realize the danger posed by surgical airstrikes against them. These strikes degrade their capabilities.104 They hamper the groups’ plans for further expansion. Sometimes they place the lives of their leaders at risk.105 From this stage forward, nations and territorial terrorist groups start to move in circles and dance the delicate dance of coevolution. A Darwinian term, “coevolution” describes a process by which two species reciprocally affect each other's evolution and develop adaptive capabilities.106 In nature, a long and Laura Smith-Spark, ISIL Fighters Say Constant Airstrikes Drove Them Out of Kobani, CNN (Jan. 31, 2015), http://www.cnn.com/2015/01/31/middleeast/isis-fighting/; see also Inside Kobane: Eyewitness Account in Besieged Kurdish City, BBC (Nov. 5, 2014), http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-29902405.
Russian Air Force Destroys 448 Terrorist Facilities in Syria Over 3 Days, RT NEWS (Nov. 9, 2015), https://www.rt.com/news/321301-syria-isis-448-targets/.
Mostafa Hashem, Islamic State Claims Responsibility for Russian Plane Crash in Egypt, REUTERS (Oct 31, 2015), http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/10/31/us-egypt-crash-islamic-stateidUSKCN0SP0P520151031#Cp1XuBCY4AIAbfVE.97.
See Joseph S. Nye, Boots on the Ground to Fight ISIS? Sure, But Arab and Turkish Boots, Not American, FLAGLERLIVE (Sep. 10, 2015), http://flaglerlive.com/83327/isis-military-interventionnye-ps/, Graham Allison, Defeating ISIL: With Whose Boots on the Ground, THE ATLANTIC (Oct.
27, 2014); Anthony H. Cordesman, Iraq, Syria, and the Islamic State: The ‘Boots on the Ground’ Fallacy, CENTER FOR STRATEGIC AND INTERNATIONAL STUDIES (Sept. 19, 2014), http://csis.org/publication/iraq-syria-and-islamic-state-boots-ground-fallacy.
See Joint Resolution on the Authorization for Use of Military Force against the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant, White House (Feb. 10, 2015), http://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/ default/files/docs/aumf_02112015.pdf; see also Let Me Make This as Unclear as Possible, FOREIGN POLICY (March 11, 2015), http://foreignpolicy.com/2015/03/11/let-me-make-this-asunclear-as-possible-obama-aumf-isis/.
See Benjamin Wittes and Gabriella Blum, The Future Of Violence: Robots And Germs, Hackers And Drones—confronting A New Age Of Threat (2015).
See Harold Hongju Koh, The Obama Administration and International Law, STATE DEPARTMENT (Mar. 25 2010), http://www.state.gov/s/l/releases/remarks/139119.htm; Elizabeth Chuck, Terror Suspects Are Frequent Targets of U.S. Drones, ABC NEWS (Nov. 14, 2015), http://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/terror-suspects-are-frequent-targets-u-s-drones-n463036.
John N. Thompson, The Geographic Mosaic of Coevolution (2005).
2016 / Terrorism 2.0: The Rise of the Civilitary Battlefield 221 lasting contest exists between predator and prey or parasite and host.107 According to Darwin’s natural selection theory, adaptive species have a better chance at survival than non-adaptive species, and those species that do not adapt eventually disappear.108 Territorial terrorist groups excel in terrorism, but they cannot directly confront fighter jets, drones, or cruise missiles. How might territorial terrorist groups adapt to airstrikes or cruise missiles in order to ensure their own survival?
1. Terrorocketing or Terroballistic Capabilities In the course of their Model I and Model II evolutions, territorial terrorist groups acquire two fundamental resources: the land they control, and the civilians
they govern within these territories. At Model III, they add a third component:
rockets and short-range ballistic missiles. But military installations are not their prime intended targets—the groups gain this firepower with the intention of targeting civilian populations.
Consequently, we have witnessed a rapid growth in the numbers of rockets and short-range ballistic missiles held by terrorists.109 This phenomenon was noted by former US Secretary of Defense Robert Gates, who said that some of these groups, like Hezbollah, maintain an “arsenal of rockets and missiles [that] now dwarfs the inventory of many nation-states.”110 Let us explore Secretary Gates’s statement. The reference to a missile arsenal, for example, needs some linguistic attention. For many people, this phrase still resonates with Cold War tones, when the U.S. and the Soviet Union rapidly expanded their nuclear stockpiles in an adversarial arms race, and many missiles stood on alert, ready to be fired.