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WTC2016 | SAN FRANCISCO CALIFORNIA, USA WEDNESDAY 27 APRIL Tunnel Losses: Causes, Impact, Trends and Risk Engineering Management T. Konstantis and S. Konstantis, NTUA (Civil) and P. Spyridis, RULER Ltd Tunneling and Underground works are unequivocally subject to a diversity of inherent uncertainties associated with the geotechnical, hydro-geological and environmental regime that surrounds them. On many occasions, these uncertainties can provoke loss events of considerable consequences. The present contribution elaborates on losses that the insurance market has suffered in the recent years, following a construction failure event. These losses are being considered and analysed on a quantitative basis through evaluation of cost related data, with explicit discretization of the applied construction methodology and of the subsequent developed failure type since both of which are considered of major importance. Given the identified persistence and regularity of some loss-contributing factors, recommendations are provided on the basis of a proactive risk engineering management approach that are envisaged to reinforce the understanding of project risks and alleviate the incurred insurance cost.

Challenges in Adapting Tunnel Construction Contracts to Actual Ground Conditions L. Paar, Graz University of Technology Underground construction poses certain challenges for all parties involved because the actual ground conditions are often unpredictable. Highly complex projects like tunnel construction are affected by various uncertainties. To address this complexity, the construction contract has to be flexible enough to be adapted to the actual conditions (e.g. divergent ground conditions, work delays).

However, the adaptation of a tunnel construction contract does not guarantee the absence of a margin of interpretation. The perfect construction contract is an illusion because ex ante statements of the actual ground conditions are not feasible. This paper will discuss contractual parameters that must be considered in order to enable an effective adaptation of the contract during excavation. It is therefore necessary to discuss the following topics: decision-making competence, variable remuneration, fair-risk allocation, value engineering and partnering between client and contractor.

TBM Risk Management System considering

Predicted Ground Condition ahead of Tunnel Face:

Methodology Development and Application H. Chung, Korea University; J. Park, Korea Railroad Research Institute and S. Lee, H. Choi and I. Lee, Korea University When using a Tunnel Boring Machine (TBM) during tunneling work, unexpected ground conditions can be encountered that are not predicted in the design stage. These reduce the stability of tunnels, and can result in considerable economic losses.

This paper analyzes the potential risk events that may occur due to risky ground conditions. A resistivity survey is utilized to predict the risky ground conditions ahead of the tunnel face during construction. The potential risk events are evaluated considering both the occurrence probability and the impact. A TBM risk management system that can suggest proper solution methods for potential risk events is also developed. Multi-Criterion Decision Making (MCDM) is utilized to determine the optimal solution 22 – 28 APRIL | MOSCONE CENTER | WTC2016 method to handle risk events. Lastly, an actual construction site, at which a risk event occurred during tunnel construction, is analyzed utilizing the Earth Pressure Balance (EPB) Shield TBM, to verify the efficacy of the proposed system.

Considerations for a District-level, Tunnel-risk, Screening Tool E. Moradabadi and D. F. Laefer, University College Dublin To more rigorously address tunneling risks to above-ground structures, vulnerability evaluation of all structures along a tunnel route is required. This multi-block area along the route can be considered a district. To fully assess each structure within a tunnel’s zone of influence, a multi-block or district-level model may provide new insights as to risk evaluation and mitigation strategies. However populating such a model with the existing geometry of the built environment poses a major challenge as measured drawings are not readily available for all structures along a tunnel’s route. Cost-effective population of such a model could arguably involve remote sensing data in the form of laser scanning or photogrammetry. However even for unreinforced masonry structures, where external, above-ground geometries can be captured, without a prohibitively expensive building-by-building, in person survey many factors would remain unknown. To consider these uncertainties in an automatic way, a performance assessment framework is proposed. Such a framework allows a more rigorous, initial, risk quantification than is currently possible within the simple empirical models generally being used in industry when tunneling risk is initially assessed.

This paper introduces (within the allowable space limits of this format) considerations for auto-population and application of a district-level, tunnel-risk screening tool.

Predicted Risks Versus Actual Outcomes-Four Recent U.S. Rock Tunnel Projects L. W. Abramson, D. McMaster, A. J. Thompson and M. Vitale, Mott MacDonald Performing risk analyses on tunnel projects has become common place and on many projects it is required from an owner or regulatory perspective. After the project is planned, designed and constructed, the data concerning identified risks, assumptions, costs, probabilities and mitigations is generally long forgotten and buried in some file somewhere. A study was performed comparing predicted risks versus actual events on four recently constructed rock tunnel projects in New York, Ohio, Georgia and California. Probabilities and costs for selectively common risks on tunnel projects have been studied and re-evaluated. Conclusions are presented that can guide future projects and the veracity of the tunnel risk analyses performed.

Decision Analysis of Alternative Contracting Strategies for Tunnel Projects-Contracting Strategy Can Make or Break a Project Where the Success is Measured with Key Performance Indicators C. Hirner, F. Oksuz and R. Brainard, Black & Veatch Key project participants, including owners, engineers, and contractors continually seek for sound and structured decision analysis on how to select the best contracting method for successful project delivery. In addition to being burdened with technical challenges, WTC2016 | SAN FRANCISCO CALIFORNIA, USA WEDNESDAY 27 APRIL lack of resources, budget shortcomings, regulatory requirements, and bureaucratic and politically mandated obstacles, the project participants need a reliable decision analysis model on the best project delivery method. The pendulum of choice for contracting continually swings back and forth between traditional design-bid-build and alternative delivery options such as design-build, progressive design-build, construction manager at risk, and public-private-partnership. For large tunnel projects, the decision process is further complicated due to contract packaging options as well as risks in underground construction. Contracting strategies for large tunnels require thorough consideration of performance, risk, quality, operability, cost and schedule. This paper compiles an array of decision making criteria and tools for an unbiased and balanced evaluation and ranking system in the procurement of large tunneling projects.

Employing a Unique Procurement Process for the City of Ottawa Combined Sewage Storage Tunnel G. Bauer and C. Goodwin, Stantec Consulting Ltd and S.

Courtland and R. Dempsey City of Ottawa The City of Ottawa’s Combined Sewage Storage Tunnel consists of two interconnected tunnels totaling 6.2 km with a diameter of 3m including access shafts and hydraulic structures which connect to the City’s most critical sewers. This tunnel will be built 15m to 30m below ground in the downtown core adjacent to, and crossing below, the Light Rail Tunnel, which introduces additional considerations in terms of sequencing and risk mitigation. The City embarked on a unique Procurement Process to address the risks involved with a large tunnel project and those associated with tunneling below downtown, underneath and adjacent to UNESCO World Heritage Sites, and connecting to live critical sewers. This paper describes the unique procurement approach employed and the contractual risk mitigation measures developed to provide the best value while minimizing risk. Specific features include Market Sounding, using a Fairness Commissioner, Contractor Prequalication and Risk Mitigation Measures in the Tender documents.

CMAR Delivery Method on the Lake Mead Intake No. 3 Low Lake Level Pumping Station-Early Stages of Success J. Hoover, Barnard of Nevada, Inc; E. Moonin, Southern Nevada Water Authority and C. George, Parsons Water & Infrastructure, Inc In response to a severe regional drought and in preparation for the further decline of water levels in Southern Nevada’s Lake Mead, the Southern Nevada Water Authority (SNWA) built a new intake system to ensure water supply to Las Vegas and its surrounding communities. In 2015, design began on the Low Lake Level Pumping Station (L3PS) that will move the water from this lower intake, ensuring operability of the water delivery system despite these declining lake levels. The L3PS Project includes a 159 meter-deep shaft, a large underground chamber, and 34-each 152 meter-deep, 2.4 meter-diameter drilled well shafts to be constructed in highly faulted and fractured ground. The Construction Manager at Risk (CMAR) delivery method was chosen to facilitate early contractor involvement in the design process to address the significant challenges and risks anticipated on this US$650 million Project. This paper describes the CMAR selection process;

22 – 28 APRIL | MOSCONE CENTER | WTC2016 Posters (Continued) the CMAR involvement during design and benefits resulting from that involvement; and the unique collaborative effort among the owner, engineer, program manager and CMAR used to evaluate and select the best design approach, preferred underground construction methods, and coordinated geotechnical baseline report.

Development and Execution of a Risk Transfer Strategy for the Eglinton Crosstown LRT B. T. Hamilton, CH2M; C. Murphy, CIMA+ and R. Piliounis, Metrolinx The Eglinton-Crosstown Light Rail Transit line is a 19-kilometre corridor with a 10-kilometre underground portion currently being constructed by Metrolinx in Toronto through a densely populated urban environment. Tunneling works are being completed through two separate design-bid-build contracts that include consideration for a phased handover to a follow on contractor who will take ownership of the tunnels, including warranties, and will complete the stations and remainder of the system through a PPP delivery model including maintenance of the system for 30 years. Warranty provisions, settlement apportionment, tunnel leakage, potential delays and conflicts between contractors are just some of the risks the team managing tunnel contract integration had to consider when developing the PPP contract. This paper will present an overview of how these risks were assessed and allocated through the contracts and the strategies adopted to minimize risks to Metrolinx while ensuring successful procurement was maintained.

Megaprojects – 50 Years, What Have we Learned J. Reilly, John Reilly International Successful management of megaprojects, meaning delivery within budget, on time and according to expectations, is a fundamental requirement. Many projects have been successful, some have not. This paper reviews megaprojects, drawn from the author’s projects over the last 50 years, with “lessons-learned” and a summary of recommendations that, if implemented, would improve megaproject management and delivery. Characteristics of these projects are summarized – including outcomes related to key factors such as politics, management, organizational structure, contracting methods, cost estimates, risk and other elements. The projects include the Washington D.C. Metro, Boston Southwest Corridor, LA Metro, Toronto Rapid Transit Expansion Program, BART San Francisco, MARTA Atlanta, London Underground and the Washington State Highway megaprojects – including the SR520 Floating Bridge and the Alaskan Way tunnel. Other projects that illustrate successful, innovative management and contracting methods include the Madrid Metro (low-cost delivery), the Sydney Northside Storage tunnel (outturn cost, alliancing) and the Lake Mead tunnel (working in partnership, risk management).

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Soft Ground TBMs – Prediction, Operation and Analysis Chair: D. Ofiara, The Robbins Co, USA ITA Co-chair: D. Mc Girr, ITA WG 20 Vice Animateur, UK 08:30-08:50 Rheology of Foam-Conditioned Sands in EPB Tunneling M. Galli, Ingenieurbüro Dipl.-Ing. H. Vössing GmbH and M. Thewes, Institute for Tunnelling and Construction Management The flow behavior of the support medium in EPB tunneling is a decisive criterion for effective face support. On the one hand, the support material should possess fluid-like properties ensuring a homogeneous pressure transfer to the face and on the other hand, it needs to exhibit sufficient stiffness for transportation and tipping. Analyses of in situ earth pressures at the bulk head showed clearly a non-linear distribution. Usually, the flow behavior of conditioned soils is assessed using a concrete slump test.

Recommendations from literature suggest a suitable workability by a slump range of 10 to 20 cm. In this contribution, the rheological characterization of soil-foam mixtures with the slump test is approached analytically. Therefore, measurements from numerous slump tests are considered. Furthermore, indications will be presented for the tunneling practice regarding the conditioning process and future work.

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