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«by Johnathon P. Ehsani A dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy (Health Behavior ...»

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However, only a limited number of states make injury crash data available to researchers (National Highway Traffic Safety Administration 2011). The increased sample size that would be gained by using comprehensive state crash data would reduce limited power as an impediment to testing critical hypotheses, and provide a more stable estimate of the independent effects of passenger and nighttime driving restrictions on serious teen driver crashes.

This study’s purpose was to examine the independent effects of GDL passenger and nighttime driving restrictions on teen drivers’ fatal crashes. With the exception of Rhode Island, these analyses did not identify a decline in teen drivers’ fatal crashes attributable solely to the implementation of passenger and nighttime driving restrictions, a finding that contrasts with existing reports on the effect of passenger and nighttime driving restrictions on teen drivers’ fatal crashes. We attribute the previously reported declines to the synergy resulting from the combination of multiple GDL components, rather than the passenger or nighttime restrictions alone. This interpretation suggests that passenger and nighttime driving restrictions are most effective when they are implemented as part of comprehensive, multi-component graduated driver licensing systems, rather than as isolated restrictions.

Table 3.1: States that added an intermediate license passenger restriction independently of other GDL components between 1990 and 2009.

State Previously existing GDL (effective date) New addition to GDL (effective date)

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Table 3.2: States that added an intermediate license nighttime driving restriction independently of other GDL components between 1990 and 2009.

State Previously existing GDL (effective date) New addition to GDL (effective date)

–  –  –

* 16-17-years # 25-54-years Table 3.4. Parameters of best-fitting sudden permanent change ARIMA models estimating the effect of passenger restrictions on 16- and 17- year olds’ all fatal and fatal passenger crash rates per capita, 1990 – 2009.

–  –  –

Component of interest highlighted in bold # Based on quarterly crash data Table 3.5. Parameters of best-fitting sudden permanent change ARIMA models estimating the effect of nighttime driving restrictions on 16- and 17- year olds’ all fatal and fatal nighttime crash rates per capita, 1990 – 2009.

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Bartels, R. H., J. C. Beatty and B. A. Barsky (1998). An Introduction to Splines for Use in Computer Graphics and Geometric Modelling. San Francisco, CA, Morgan

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Bureau of the Census. U.S. Department of Commerce (1999). 1990 to 1999 annual time series of state population estimates by age and sex: 1990 to 1999.

Bureau of the Census. U.S. Department of Commerce (2010). State single year of age and sex population estimates: 2000 to 2009.

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Chen, L. H., S. P. Baker and G. Li (2006). "Graduated driver licensing programs and fatal crashes of 16-year-old drivers: A national evaluation." Pediatrics 118(1): 56Cooper, D., F. Atkins and D. Gillen (2005). "Measuring the impact of passenger restrictions on new teenage drivers." Accident Analysis & Prevention 37(1): 19Elliott, M. R. and J. T. Shope (2003). "Use of a Bayesian changepoint model to estimate effects of a graduated driver's licensing program." Journal of Data Science 1: 43– 63.

Fell, J. C., M. Todd and R. B. Voas (2011). "A national evaluation of the nighttime and passenger restriction components of graduated driver licensing." Journal of Safety Research 42(4): 283-290.

Ferguson, S. A. and A. F. Williams (1996). "Parents' views of driver licensing practices in the United States." Journal of Safety Research 27(2): 73-81.

Foss, R. and A. Goodwin (2003). "Enhancing the effectiveness of graduated driver licensing legislation." Journal of Safety Research 34(1): 79-84.

Foss, R. D. (2009). Effect of Adding a Passenger Restriction to an Existing GDL System.

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Foss, R. D., J. R. Feaganes and E. A. Rodgman (2001). "Initial effects of graduated driver licensing on 16-year-old driver crashes in North Carolina." JAMA: The Journal of the American Medical Association 286: 1588–1592.

Foss, R. D., S. V. Masten and A. H. Goodwin (2007). Long-term effects of graduated driver licensing in North Carolina. Chapel Hill, NC, University of North Carolina Highway Research Center.

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Hyde, L. K., L. J. Cook, S. Knight and L. M. Olson (2005). "Graduated driver licensing in Utah: Is it effective?" Annals of Emergency Medicine 45(2): 147-154.

Insurance Institute for Highway Safety. (2006). "Motor Vehicle Registration and Licensed Driver Information." Retrieved 13th September, 2011, from www.iihs.org/laws/comments/pdf/fhwa_ds_atm_030906.pdf.

Insurance Institute for Highway Safety. (2011). "Fatality Facts 2009: General."

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Insurance Institute for Highway Safety. (2011). "Graduated Driver Licensing." Retrieved 26th May, 2011, from http://www.iihs.org/research/qanda/gdl.html.

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Lam, L. T. (2003). "Factors associated with young drivers car crash injury: comparisons among learner, provisional, and full licensees." Accident Analysis & Prevention 35(6): 913-920.

Lin, M.-L. and K. T. Fearn (2003). "The provisional license: nighttime and passenger restrictions - a literature review." Journal of Safety Research 34(1): 51-61.

Masten, S. V., R. D. Foss and S. W. Marshall (2011). "Graduated Driver Licensing and Fatal Crashes Involving 16- to 19-Year-Old Drivers." JAMA: The Journal of the American Medical Association 306(10): 1098-1103.

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McCartt, A. T., E. R. Teoh, M. Fields, K. A. Braitman and L. A. Hellinga (2010).

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Evaluation of the first four years." Journal of Safety Research 35(3): 337-344.

Shope, J. T., L. J. Molnar, M. R. Elliott and P. F. Waller (2001). "Graduated Driver Licensing in Michigan." JAMA: The Journal of the American Medical Association 286(13): 1593-1598.

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"Effect of Florida's graduated licensing program on the crash rate of teenage drivers." Accident Analysis & Prevention 32(4): 527-532.

Williams, A. F. (2007). "Contribution of the components of graduated licensing to crash reductions." Journal of Safety Research 38(2): 177-184.

Williams, A. F., S. A. Ferguson and J. K. Wells (2005). "Sixteen-Year-Old Drivers in Fatal Crashes, United States, 2003." Traffic Injury Prevention 6(3): 202 - 206.

Williams, A. F., W. A. Leaf, B. G. Simons-Morton and J. L. Hartos (2006). "Parents' views of teen driving risks, the role of parents, and how they plan to manage the risks." Journal of Safety Research 37(3): 221-226.

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a literature review and commentary." Journal of Public Health Policy 18(3): 334– 345.

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–  –  –

Motor vehicle crashes are the leading cause of death and a leading cause of injury for teens in the United States (National Highway Traffic Safety Administration 2010). Graduated driver licensing (GDL) has been the single most effective intervention to reduce motor-vehicle-related injury and fatalities among 16- and 17-year-olds (Insurance Institute for Highway Safety 2011). GDL eases young drivers onto roadways by limiting their exposure to progressively higher risk driving conditions (National Highway Traffic Safety Administration. U.S. Department of Transportation 1996). The move from simple to increasingly complex driving conditions is mediated by teens’ progression through three licensure levels (Foss and Goodwin 2003). The first level (learner license) allows teens to gain driving practice and experience under the supervision of a fully licensed driver (typically a parent or other person over age 21 who is designated by the parent). The second level (intermediate license) allows teens to drive independently but with restrictions that limit their exposure to the highest risk driving conditions (i.e., driving with passengers (Chen, Baker et al. 2000) and driving at night (Williams 2003)). The final stage of GDL gives teens who have gained driving experience while fulfilling the requirements of learner and intermediate licenses, permission to drive with no restrictions. With few exceptions, the staged licensing requirements of GDL apply exclusively to 15- to 17-year-old drivers (Williams and Shults 2010). In most U.S. states, an 18-year-old wishing to obtain a driver license for the first time is not required to follow GDL requirements, but typically only needs to complete a knowledge test and a driving skills test prior to receiving a regular license.



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