WWW.DISSERTATION.XLIBX.INFO
FREE ELECTRONIC LIBRARY - Dissertations, online materials
 
<< HOME
CONTACTS



Pages:     | 1 |   ...   | 74 | 75 || 77 | 78 |   ...   | 92 |

«International 17 Workshop th Nitrogen The was jointly organised by Teagasc and AFBI Printed by Print Depot Suggested citation Authors, 2012. Title ...»

-- [ Page 76 ] --

IPCC, 2007. Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Contribution of Working Group II). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.

Lutz, W. and Samir, K.C. 2010. Dimensions of global population projections: what do we know about future population trends and structures? Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B-Biological Sciences 365, 2779-2791.

Nelson, G.C., Rosegrant, M.W., Koo, J., Robertson, R., Sulser, T., Zhu, T., Ringler, C., Msangi, S., Palazzo, A., Batka, M., Magalhaes, M., Valmonte-Santos, R., Ewing, M. and Lee, D. 2009. Climate change : Impact on agriculture and costs of adaptation IFPRI, Washington DC, USA.

Nelson, G.C., Rosegrant, M.W., Palazzo, A., Gray, I., Ingersoll, C., Robertson, R., Tokgoz, S., Zhu, T., Sulser, T.B., Ringler, C., Msangi, S. and You, L. 2010. Food Security & Climate Change, Challeges to

2050. IFPRI, Washington.

Paillard, S., Treyer, S. and Dorin, B. 2009. Agrimonde: Scenarios and Challenges for Feeding the World in 2050.. Quae, Versailles.

Phalan, B., Onial, M., Balmford, A. and Green, R.E. 2011. Reconciling food production and biodiversity conservation: land sharing and land sparing compared. Science 333, 1289-1291.

Nitrogen Workshop 2012

Piesse, J. and Thirtle, C. 2009. Three bubbles and a panic: An explanatory review of recent food commodity price events. Food Policy 34, 119-129.

Piesse, J. and Thirtle, C. 2010. Agricultural R&D, technology and productivity. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B-Biological Sciences 365, 3035-3047.

Rosegrant, M.W., Ringler, C., Msangi, S., Sulser, T.B., Zhu, T. and Cline, S.A. (2008) http://www.ifpri.org/sites/default/files/publications/impactwater.pdf.

Royal Society (2009) Reaping the Benefits: Science and the Sustainable Intensification of Global Agriculture. Royal Society, London, UK.

Smil, V. 2001. Feeding the World. A Challenge for the Twenty-First Century. MIT Publications, Boston.

Stern, N. 2007. The Economics of Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.

Strzepek, K. and Boehlert, B. 2010. Competition for water for the food system. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B-Biological Sciences 365, 2927-2940.

Swinnen, J. and Squicciarini, P. 2012. Mixed messages on prices and food security. Science 335, 405Tilman, D., Balzer, C., Hill, J. and Befort, B.L. 2011. Global food demand and the sustainable intensification of agriculture. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 108, 20260-20264.

United Nations, 2009. The Millennium Development Goals Report. United Nations, New York.

Vitousek, P.M., Aber, J.D., Howarth, R.W., Likens, G.E., Matson, P.A., Schindler, D.W., Schlesinger, W.H. and Tilman, D. 1997. Human alteration of the global nitrogen cycle: Sources and consequences.

Ecological Applications 7, 737-750.

Wiggins, S. and Brooks, J. 2010. http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/50/35/46340359.pdf.

World Bank (2008) World Development Report 2008: Agriculture for Development. World Bank, Washington, USA.

Nitrogen Workshop 2012

Nitrogen and food security in the European Union from a global perspective Grinsven, H.J.M. vana, Westhoek, H.Ja., Bouwman, A.F. a, Erisman, J.W.b a PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, The Hague, The Netherlands b Louis Bolk institute for international advice and research on sustainable agriculture, nutrition and health care, Driebergen, The Netherlands

1. Background & Objectives Future food security is determined by our ability to accommodate agricultural production with the increase of world population and the change to diets richer in protein. Opportunities to increase the agricultural area are limited because of competing claims by biodiversity conservation, energy cultivation and urbanisation. Increasing nitrogen (N) intensity has been a major factor in increasing agricultural productivity per hectare in the past and hence saving land. But as a consequence N pollution from agriculture has become a major problem from the local to the global scale. This compellingly demands for an increase in N efficiency of agricultural production and diets. The common agricultural policy (CAP) has helped Europe to achieve food security and self sufficiency for most commodities. The European Union (EU) Environmental Directives have lead to an increase in nitrogen efficiencies in European agriculture from 1980 onwards. As a consequence, N pollution from agricultural sources has decreased slowly. However, improvements are stagnating and most environmental targets are not within reach.

This paper analyses the role of N in achieving food security and causing environmental impacts, focusing on Europe. It further explores options to maintain European and global food security while minimizing loss of welfare due to environmental damage.

2. Materials & Methods This paper synthesises results from recent global assessments by UNEP, IPCC, OECD and IAASTD summarized in Kok et al. (2008), additional scenario analyses building on these assessments focussing on N and agriculture, the European Nitrogen Assessment (Sutton et al.,

2011) and an analysis of the European protein puzzle (Westhoek et al., 2011).

3. Results & Discussion Global setting In the UN reference scenario the world population will increase from 7 billion in 2011 to 9 billion in 2050. Between 2000 and 2050 total global caloric intake is expected to increase by 65% and the average global consumption of animal products is expected to double (Stehfest et al., 2009). This compelling demand on the global food system will require an increase in the production of cereals in 2050 by about 60%. The share of feed cereal needed for livestock production will remain at one third. The total area of agricultural land is expected to increase between 2000 and 2050 from 47 to 53 million km2 (Vuuren and Faber, 2009) with 65% in use for grassland and 10% for feed crops. Accounting for about 5% of land use in 2050 for energy cultivation (Bouwman et al., 2010), the 60% increase in cereal production has to be delivered mainly by an increase of productivity per hectare. An average annual increase by 1% would suffice but achievement is at risk. Between 1970 and 2010 the annual increase of wheat productivity decreased from values over 3% to just above 1% globally and less than 1% in Europe and the U.S.A (Dixon, 2009).





–  –  –

difference between the lowest and highest mean wheat yield per hectare in member states of the EU27 (Jensen et al., 2011). However, this recurring factor of four is coincidental as the effect of nitrogen on yield is mixed with effects of local growing conditions, improved plant breeding, irrigation, pest control, availability of other nutrients, and overall improvement of farm management. Using various information sources, Erisman et al. (2008) estimated that mineral N-fertilizer is responsible for about 30-50% of global crop yield increases and may feed almost half of the present world population. Nitrogen can clearly save land, however, such estimates should be viewed with some caution. In part they depend on changing insights on potential crop yields in the absence of mineral N fertilizer and options to close the yield gap. Ponti et al. (2012) estimated the average yield gap between organic and conventional arable agriculture at 20%. Offerman and Nieberg (2000) concluded a similar yield gap between organic and conventional dairy farming.

Nitrogen and animal production Meat and dairy consumption in the EU has increased steadily in the past 50 years from 25 kg of protein per capita in 1960 to over 30 kg in 2007. Consumption of meat is twice the world average and consumption of dairy products exceeds the world average by a factor of three (Westhoek et al., 2011). Total protein consumption per capita in Europe exceeds the recommendation by the World Health Organization by 70%. Over consumption of (red) meat increases the risk of intestinal cancers and over consumption of saturated fatty acids from animal products increases risks for cardiovascular health (Westhoek et al., 2011).

Modern industrial livestock farming has increased the efficiency of conversion of animal feed to human food to 2-3 kg feed per kg eggs or poultry meat and to 3-4 kg feed per kg pork (Lesschen et al., 2011). As a result land demand for feed has slowed down, but yet feeding European livestock presently requires 125-140 million ha of land, and an additional 10-14 million ha outside Europe related to import of protein and oil rich feed stuffs. Of the feeding area in the EU about half is grassland and half is (mainly) for feed cereals and silage maize.

Arable land use for food and animal feed are about equal. The average EU diet requires 0.4 ha per capita, 0.3 ha of this is for animal products.

–  –  –

Nitrogen Workshop 2012 Nitrogen and environment Nitrogen loss to the environment is a, partly inevitable, consequence of production and consumption of food and energy. Typically, nitrogen use efficiencies for arable production in Europe average around 40% (Goulding et al., 2008). Protein (or N) conversion efficiencies in livestock production range from 20-50% for poultry products, 15-30% in pork and dairy and 5-13% in beef (Sutton et al., 2011). This implies that consumption of protein in animal production involves a large indirect consumption of proteins in feed, and through that of nitrogen inputs to produce the feed crops, and of the associated N pollution. The total input of reactive N to agriculture in the EU27 in 2000 was nearly 14 Tg, mainly in the form of chemical N fertilizer (Sutton et al., 2011). This input constitutes 75% of the total input of reactive N. About 40% of the total input is emitted to air as NH3, NOX and N2O, while 50% is lost to water. As a result N pollution from agricultural sources has become the dominant cause of coastal eutrophication and depletion of stratospheric ozone, and significantly contributes to air pollution, drinking water pollution, freshwater eutrophication, biodiversity loss and disruption of the greenhouse balance.

Nitrogen and welfare Nitrogen contributes to welfare by increasing agricultural productivity and allowing protein rich diets and for some regions export of agricultural products. The total value of agricultural production (including industrial processing) in 2000 in the EU27 amounted to more than 300 billion euro/yr, of which about 40% (120 billion euro/yr) could be attributed to nitrogen. On the other hand environmental pollution creates a welfare loss. The total damage (or external) cost for the EU related to agricultural emissions of nitrogen was estimated at 25-145 billion euro/yr (Fig. 2; Brink et al., 2011) and appears to be in the same range as the (direct) economical benefits of nitrogen. Damage cost estimates are based on surveys on willingnessto-pay to prevent environmental impacts of nitrogen and need further debate in view of large uncertainties and conceptual issues.

Figure 2. Welfare loss due to environmental damage in the EU27 in 2000 caused by nitrogen emission from agricultural production and energy generation

–  –  –

An insight into diets and agricultural production processes, when combined with external costs, allows the calculation of the N footprint of individual consumption (Leach et al., 2011).

The cost of N damage and N footprints are novel ways to communicate N pollution to a larger audience and help to find new optimums for N management in agriculture and the food system at large.

Future nitrogen use Because of the many uncertain drivers and factors, global use of N fertilizer in 2050 in recent scenario studies (Bouwman et al., 2009, 2011; Erisman et al., 2008) is also very uncertain.

Relative to 2000, it ranges between a doubling and a small decrease. In contrast, for Europe these scenarios show a consolidation in the use of N fertilizer and a small increase in manure production, together with a modest increase in nutrient use efficiencies. A worst case scenario for global food security and N pollution would be a shift to global animal protein rich diets combined with high ambitions for land and N demanding energy cultivation. This could result in the skyrocketing of global food and fertilizer prices. An alarming recent observation is that N fertilizer use has increased by more that 25% between 2000 and 2009, and now is at the level that was predicted by FAO for 2030 (Bruinsma, 2003). Equally alarming are the sharp increases and strong variations in food and fertilizer prices since 2008.

Nitrogen challenges and options for Europe Challenges to maintain European and global food security while minimizing loss of welfare due to N pollution, are increasing nutrient use efficiency, consolidating agricultural land area and changing diets. Reducing food waste, amounting to 30% globally and in Europe, appears to be an easy and no regret first priority but waste is deeply embedded in the food chain and in consumer behaviour (Gustavsson et al. 2011). Complicating factors not yet included in most scenarios are the effects of climate change on agricultural production, and particularly for Europe, stricter demands on animal welfare, human health risks and use of antibiotics, which will likely decrease feed conversion efficiencies (Westhoek et al., 2012).

A great opportunity for the EU is smart development of agriculture in the new central and eastern member states or in the western states of the FSU. For example Romania and Bulgaria hold about 20% of the agricultural land in the EU27, while productivity and nitrogen intensity and environmental cost are still low (Jensen et al., 2011). A well integrated EU food and N policy would stimulate a transition from economical (or private) optimal N fertilizer rates to economical and environmental (or societal) optimal rates (Brink et al. 2011; Good and Beatty, 2011). Using N damage costs from Brink et al. (2011) this optimal societal nitrogen fertilization rate for winter wheat in northwest Europe, would be 30-90 kilogram/ha (median 55 kilogram/ha; 30%) lower than current recommended rates. The concurrent reduction in cereal yield according to conventional nitrogen response curves would be 1-2 tonnes per hectare and compromise food security. However, in view of the recent findings by Ponti et al.

(2012), this yield loss due to lower inputs of mineral nitrogen could be compensated to a large extent by adapting nutrient conservation and cycling practices of organic farming.



Pages:     | 1 |   ...   | 74 | 75 || 77 | 78 |   ...   | 92 |


Similar works:

«About SLP SLP’s stainless steel catback exhaust system, Providing OEM-quality performance, handling and SLP’s high-flow intake runners, SLP’s cold air appearance components for late model Detroitinduction system and an SLP revised PCM E-Prom. based Performance Cars (Camaro, Corvette, Installing this package on a TPI 350 CID engineMustang, Challenger and Charger) and Full-Size GM equipped 1988 Camaro resulted in a 50 horsepower Trucks and SUVs is what SLP is all about. gain, a one full...»

«Nephrotic syndrome in children What is nephrotic syndrome? Nephrotic syndrome is a condition that can happen in both adults and children. There are many different causes but they all cause the kidneys to leak proteins, particularly one called albumin, from the blood into the urine. Protein is lost from the body faster than the body can replace it. Albumin in the blood stream acts like a sponge to keep water in your blood vessels and without it fluid leaks out into the body tissues. Fluid...»

«Minaret Chapter 1 Bism Allahi, Ar-rahman, Ar-raheem I’ve come down in the world. I’ve slid to a place where the ceiling is low and there isn’t much room to move. Most of the time I’m used to it. Most of the time I’m good. I accept my sentence and do not brood or look back. But sometimes a shift makes me remember. Routine is ruffled and new start makes me suddenly conscious of what I’ve become, standing in a street covered with autumn leaves. The trees in the park across the road are...»

«Migration and integration: The Salado in the Tonto Basin Item type text; Dissertation-Reproduction (electronic) Authors Clark, Jeffery Jerome, 1960Publisher The University of Arizona. Rights Copyright © is held by the author. Digital access to this material is made possible by the University Libraries, University of Arizona. Further transmission, reproduction or presentation (such as public display or performance) of protected items is prohibited except with permission of the author....»

«Napoleon Hill PENSA E ARRICCHISCI TE STESSO Gribaudi Proprietà letteraria riservata © 2003 by Piero Gribaudi Editore srl 20142 Milano Via C. Baroni, 190 Titolo originale dell'opera: Think and Grow Rich © Napoleon Hill Foundation Traduzione di Daniele Ballarini ISBN 978-88-7152-978-4 Prima edizione: aprile 2003 Seconda edizione: dicembre 2004 Terza edizione: maggio 2006 Quarta edizione: settembre 2007 Prima Edizione Elettronica: febbraio 2012 Copertina di Ideaesse Stampa: Studio VD Città di...»

«This document is scheduled to be published in the Federal Register on 11/03/2016 and available online at https://federalregister.gov/d/2016-26511, and on FDsys.gov 8011-01 SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION (Release No. 34-79185; File No. SR-Phlx-2016-104) October 28, 2016 Self-Regulatory Organizations; NASDAQ PHLX LLC; Notice of Filing of Proposed Rule Change to Amend Phlx Rule 748, Supervision Pursuant to Section 19(b)(1) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (“Act”),1 and Rule 19b-4...»

«COMUNE DI BORGIO VEREZZI IMPOSTA UNICA COMUNALE ( IUC ) REGOLAMENTO PER L’ APPLICAZIONE DEL TRIBUTO SUI SERVIZI INDIVISIBILI ( TASI ) 1 ART. 1 PRESUPPOSTO DELL’IMPOSTA ART. 2 ESCLUSIONI ART. 3 SOGGETTI PASSIVI ART. 4 BASE IMPONIBILE ART. 5 DETERMINAZIONE DELLE ALIQUOTE ART. 6 SOGGETTO ATTIVO ART. 7 DETRAZIONI – RIDUZIONI ESENZIONI ART. 8 INDICAZIONE ANALITICA SERVIZI INDIVISIBILI ART. 9 DICHIARAZIONI ART. 10 DEFINIZIONE DI FABBRICATO ART. 11 UNITA’ IMMOBILIARE ADIBITA AD ABITAZIONE...»

«2013 State of Florida Regional Evacuation Guidelines Formerly known as the Regional Evacuation Procedure as cited in the 2012 State Comprehensive Emergency Management Plan 1 Contents A. Introduction B. Purpose C. Authority D. Scope E.CONCEPT OF OPERATIONS 1. Overview 2. Planning Assumptions 3. Operations 5. Pre-positioning of Necessary Resources 6. Information Exchange 7. Managing Adjustments to the Regional Evacuation 8. Host Response Operations 9. Completion of the Evacuation Operation 10....»

«Name: _KEY 2006 7.012 Problem Set 6 KEY ** Due before 5 PM on WEDNESDAY, November 22, 2006. ** Turn answers in to the box outside of 68-120. PLEASE WRITE YOUR ANSWERS ON THIS PRINTOUT. 1. You create an artificial cell in a test tube. This artificial cell consists of a “cytoplasm” (i.e. the inside of the cell), a lipid bilayer, and the outside. The “cytoplasm” contains 150 mM NaCl, whereas the outside solution contains15 mM NaCl. The only kind of proteins present in the membrane are...»

«Plenary: Pretrial Motions: Stuff  to Know to Get the  Discovery You Need Pretrial Motions: Stuff to Know to Get the Things You Need John B. McEntire IV, Trial Attorney Federal Defenders of Eastern Washington & Idaho Rule 17 Subpoenas What: An unbelievably useful way to get potentially exculpatory information if you can show 1) relevance, 2) admissibility, and 3) specificity. U.S. v. Nixon, 418 U.S. 683, 700 (1974) Leading Case United States v. Tucker, 249 F.R.D. 58, 62 (S.D.N.Y 2008)...»

«The Syrian Monologues An artistic solidarity action call Why The war in Syria has been taking place since five years. Civilians are the immediate target of the various fighting sides. Mass destruction and continuous atrocities have been committed. People are fleeing from one death to another: from death under fire to death under water. The risks on the journey to the border often are as high as the risks when staying: Families walk for miles through the night to avoid being shot by snipers or...»

«CERIAS Tech Report 2003-39 AN EFFICIENT PROTOCOL FOR YAO'S MILLIONAIRES' PROBLEM by Ioannis Ioannidis, Ananth Grama Center for Education and Research in Information Assurance and Security, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN 47907-2086 An Efficient Protocol for Yao’s Millionaires’ Problem Ioannis Ioannidis and Ananth Grama Department of Computer Sciences, Purdue University, W. Lafayette, IN 47907. ioannis, ayg @cs.purdue.edu Abstract The increase in volume and sensitivity of data...»





 
<<  HOME   |    CONTACTS
2016 www.dissertation.xlibx.info - Dissertations, online materials

Materials of this site are available for review, all rights belong to their respective owners.
If you do not agree with the fact that your material is placed on this site, please, email us, we will within 1-2 business days delete him.