FREE ELECTRONIC LIBRARY - Dissertations, online materials

Pages:   || 2 | 3 | 4 |

«18 Month Outlook An Assessment of the Reliability and Operability of the Ontario Electricity System FROM APRIL 2015 TO SEPTEMBER 2016 18-Month ...»

-- [ Page 1 ] --

18 Month Outlook

An Assessment of the Reliability and Operability

of the Ontario Electricity System


18-Month Outlook Update

Executive Summary

With adequate supply and reliable transmission service forecasted, the outlook for the

reliability of Ontario’s electricity system remains positive for the coming summer and

throughout the next 18 months.

The supply situation in the spring of 2015 has improved since the last forecast as several major

nuclear outages have been rescheduled. During normal weather conditions, reserve requirements are expected to be met for summer 2015.

The Green Electron gas plant is currently under construction and is expected to come into service in Q3 of 2015, bringing in close to 300 megawatts (MW) of power to Ontario.

Additionally, about 2,000 MW of new supply – mostly wind and some large solar projects – will be incorporated into the province’s existing generation fleet, for a total of 2,300 MW of new supply over the Outlook period. By the end of the period, the amount of solar generation connected to the transmission grid is expected to grow to 280 MW, complementing the approximately 1,900 MW of embedded solar facilities located within distribution networks. The first storage project of the 34 MW procured last year is expected to come into service before the end of this outlook period.

In addition, a Thunder Bay unit (153 MW) returned to service using advanced biomass fuel and will contribute to the supply in northern Ontario.

Ontario was winter peaking in 2014 for the first time in 10 years due to milder summer weather. With more typical weather, Ontario should be summer peaking in 2015. Embedded solar generation will continue to reduce demand on the transmission system, in particular during summer peaks. For 2015, both the winter and summer peaks will be subject to lower demands due to the Industrial Conservation Initiative (ICI).

There are a number of changes occurring to demand measures over the 18-Month Outlook period. In the spring of 2015, through an RFP process, the IESO will be procuring up to 100 MW of load-following and unit commitment capability from demand-side resources. These pilot projects will help identify opportunities to enhance participation of demand response (DR) in meeting our existing system needs and how to better integrate these resources into the electricity market. A DR auction is currently being developed by the IESO to augment the existing DR capacity and to replace the expiring DR2 and DR3 contracts with a cost-competitive mechanism.

The following table summarizes the forecasted seasonal peak demands over the next 18 months.

March 23, 2015 Public Page ii 18-Month Outlook Update With the addition of significant wind supplies, conditions for surplus baseload generation (SBG) will continue over the outlook period, potentially resulting in nuclear manoeuvring and wind dispatch in real time.

Conclusions & Observations The following conclusions and observations are based on the results of this assessment.

Demand Forecast Ontario’s grid supplied peak demand is expected to decline throughout the period of this • Outlook. Growth in embedded solar and wind generation capacity and on-going conservation initiatives reduce the need for energy from the bulk power system, while also putting downward pressure on peak electricity demands. Conservation, time-of-use rates and the ICI will also put downward pressure on peak demands, and in particular summer peaks. Grid supplied energy demand is expected to remain relatively flat over the forecast horizon as Ontario’s economy expands, whereas the ICI and time of use rates put downward pressure on peaks.

Resource Adequacy Under the planned scenario, reserve requirements are expected to be met for the entire • duration of this Outlook during normal weather, except two weeks during summer of 2016.

The planning reserve is below the requirement for eleven weeks under the extreme weather scenario. These shortfalls are largely due to the planned generator outages in summer-fall 2015 and summer 2016.

For the firm scenario, reserve is below requirements for three weeks during the Outlook • period under normal weather conditions, in summer of 2016. Under extreme weather condition, the reserve is below the requirement for fourteen weeks. The firm scenario excludes any new generating facilities which haven’t reached commercial operation. As a result, the shortfall is more pronounced in the firm scenario than in the planned scenario.

About 2,300 MW of grid-connected generation is expected to be added throughout this • Outlook period, which includes 1,700 MW of wind, 10 MW of hydroelectric, 300 MW of gas, 240 MW of solar and 40 MW of biofuel resources.

Transmission Adequacy Ontario’s transmission system is expected to be able to reliably supply the demand while experiencing normal contingencies defined by planning documents under both normal and extreme weather conditions forecast for this Outlook period.

Several local area supply improvement projects are underway and will be placed in service • during the timeframe of this Outlook. These projects, shown in Appendix B, will help relieve loadings of existing transmission stations and provide additional supply capacity for future load growth. The IESO, Ontario’s transmitters and affected distributors are reviewing system needs and considering solutions in accordance with the Regional Planning Process established by the Ontario Energy Board (OEB). Plans are currently active in the GTA, Greater Ottawa, Southwest Ontario, Northwest Ontario, and Western Ontario regions.

March 23, 2015 Public Page iii 18-Month Outlook Update High voltages in southern Ontario continue to occur, especially during periods of light load.

• High voltages become more acute during these periods when shunt reactors are unavailable. While the IESO and Hydro One are currently managing this situation with day-to-day operating procedures, planning work for the installation of new voltage control devices has been initiated.

Hydro One has begun construction on the Guelph Area Transmission Refurbishment • project, with an expected completion date of Q2 2016. This project improves the transmission capability into the Guelph area by reinforcing the supply into Guelph‐Cedar Transformer Station (TS).

In the Cambridge area, plans to incorporate a second 230/115 kV autotransformer at Preston • TS and associated switching and reactive facilities are being reviewed. Hydro One and the IESO are exploring options that will help meet the IESO’s load restoration criteria following a contingency on the main supply line. Studies will continue to assess the need for additional measures to address longer term needs in the area.

The upgrading of the 115 kV breakers at Leaside TS and Manby TS was completed in Q4 •

2014. Some bus and insulator replacement work at Manby TS is scheduled for completion by Q2 2016. These new breakers facilities together with the Hearn SS rebuild completed in Dec 2013 has increased the short-circuit withstand capability of the Toronto 115 kV system and will allow new generation to be connected in the Manby and Leaside sectors.

A new station, Copeland TS, is planned to be in service in downtown Toronto in Q1 2016.

• The new station will facilitate the refurbishment of the facilities at John TS, while also enhancing the load security in the downtown core.

Work has started on the construction of Clarington TS and is scheduled to be complete by • the fall-2017. This facility will provide additional 500/230 kV transformation capacity to maintain supply reliability following the shut-down of Pickering GS. The 230 kV switching facilities at Clarington TS will also improve reliability to the loads in the Pickering, Ajax, Whitby, Oshawa and Clarington areas.

Operability Conditions for SBG will continue over the Outlook period. However, it is expected that SBG • will be managed effectively via normal market mechanisms including inter-tie scheduling, nuclear maneuvering or shutdown and the dispatch of grid-connected renewable resources.

March 23, 2015 Public Page iv 18-Month Outlook Update Caution and Disclaimer The contents of these materials are for discussion and information purposes and are provided “as is” without representation or warranty of any kind, including without limitation, accuracy, completeness or fitness for any particular purpose. The Independent Electricity System Operator (IESO) assumes no responsibility to you or any third party for the consequences of any errors or omissions. The IESO may revise these materials at any time in its sole discretion without notice to you. Although every effort will be made by the IESO to update these materials to incorporate any such revisions it is up to you to ensure you are using the most recent version.

–  –  –

Table of Contents Executive Summary

Conclusions & Observations

Table of Contents

List of Tables

List of Figures

1 Introduction

2 Updates to This Outlook

2.1 Updates to Demand Forecast

2.2 Updates to Resources

2.3 Updates to Transmission Outlook

2.4 Updates to Operability Outlook

3 Demand Forecast

3.1 Actual Weather and Demand

3.2 Forecast Drivers

3.3 Demand Response, Conservation and Embedded Generation

4 Resource Adequacy Assessment

4.1 Assessments Assumptions

4.2 Capacity Adequacy Assessment

4.3 Energy Adequacy Assessment

5 Transmission Reliability Assessment

5.1 Transmission Outages

5.2 Transmission System Adequacy

6 Operability Assessment

6.1 Operation during Nuclear Outages

6.2 Surplus Baseload Generation (SBG) Forecast

6.3 Gas-Electric Interdependency

–  –  –

List of Tables Table 3.1: Forecast Summary

Table 3.2: Weekly Energy and Peak Demand Forecast

Table 4.1: Existing Generation Capacity as of February 13, 2015

Table 4.2: Committed and Contracted Generation Resources

Table 4.3: Summary of Scenario Assumptions for Resources

Table 4.4: Monthly Historical Hydroelectric Median Values

Table 4.5: Monthly Wind Capacity Contribution Values

Table 4.6: Monthly Solar Capacity Contribution Values

Table 4.7: Summary of Available Resources

Table 4.8: Planned Scenario - Normal Weather: Summary of Zonal Energy

Table 4.9: Planned Scenario - Normal Weather: Ontario Energy Production by Fuel Type

Table 6.1: Monthly Off-Peak Wind Capacity Contribution Values

List of Figures Figure 4.1: Reserve Above Requirement: Firm Scenario with Normal vs. Extreme Weather

Figure 4.2: Reserve Above Requirement: Planned Scenario with Normal vs.

Extreme Weather.............. 13 Figure 4.3: Reserve Above Requirement: Planned Scenario with Present Outlook vs. Previous Outlook.. 14 Figure 4.4: Production by Fuel Type – Apr. 1 to Dec. 31, 2015 (%)

Figure 4.5: Production by Fuel Type – Jan.

1 to Sep. 30, 2016 (%)

Figure 6.1: Minimum Ontario Demand and Baseload Generation

–  –  –

1 Introduction This Outlook covers the 18-month period from April 2015 to September 2016 and supersedes the last Outlook released on November 27, 2014.

The purpose of the 18-Month Outlook is:

To advise market participants of the resource and transmission reliability of the Ontario • electricity system;

To assess potentially adverse conditions that might be avoided through adjustment or • coordination of maintenance plans for generation and transmission equipment; and To report on initiatives being put in place to improve reliability within the 18-month • timeframe of this Outlook.

The contents of this Outlook focus on the assessment of resource and transmission adequacy.

Additional supporting documents are located on the IESO website at http://www.ieso.ca/Pages/Participate/Reliability-Requirements/Forecasts-&-18-MonthOutlooks.aspx This Outlook presents an assessment of resource and transmission adequacy based on the stated assumptions, using the described methodology. Readers may envision other possible scenarios, recognizing the uncertainties associated with various input assumptions, and are encouraged to use their own judgment in considering possible future scenarios.

Security and Adequacy Assessments are published on the IESO website on a weekly and daily basis, and progressively supersede information presented in this report.

Readers are invited to provide comments on this Outlook report or to give suggestions as to the

content of future reports. To do so, please contact us at:

Toll Free: 1-888-448-7777 • Tel: 905-403-6900 • Fax: 905-403-6921 • E-mail: customer.relations@ieso.ca.

–  –  –

2 Updates to This Outlook 2.1 Updates to Demand Forecast The demand forecast is based on actual demand, weather and economic data through to the end of December 2014. The demand forecast has been updated to reflect the most recent economic projections. Actual weather and demand data for January and February 2015 has been included in the tables.

2.2 Updates to Resources The 18-month assessment uses planned generator outages submitted by market participants to the IESO’s Integrated Outage Management System (IOMS) as of February 13, 2015. In addition, updates to available resources include the expected forced outage rates, seasonal generation derates and variable resource contribution as determined by market participants or calculated by the IESO based on actual experience.

The following generators completed the market registration process since the release of the last


Liskeard Solar 1, 3 and 4 – 30 MW •

–  –  –

2.3 Updates to Transmission Outlook The list of transmission projects, planned transmission outages and actual experience with forced transmission outages have been updated from the previous 18-Month Outlook. For this Outlook, transmission outage plans submitted to the IOMS as of January 20, 2015 were used.

Pages:   || 2 | 3 | 4 |

Similar works:

«ASOCIACIÓN EX ALUMNOS DEL PROFESORADO EN LENGUAS VIVAS “JUAN RAMÓN FERNÁNDEZ” A Apellido: Documento nº: D Extra Paper 2012 E INTENSIVE IV Total Final Exam Exam duration: 2 hours PART I: READING A. Read the passage and do the task below. (10) You tell us your real-life experiences What it’s like. Whirlwind Romances It’s the stuff Mills & Boon novels are made of – being taken off into the sunset by the man of your dreams who you only met half an hour ago! But surely whirlwind...»

«Masaryk University Faculty of Arts Department of English and American Studies English Language and Literature Teaching English Language and Literature for Secondary Schools Mgr. Zuzana Reviľaková Concepts of Justice in the Selected Works by Christie, Allingham, P. D. James and Fyfield Master’s Diploma Thesis Supervisor: PhDr. Lidia Kyzlinková, CSc., M.Litt. I declare that I have worked on this thesis independently, using only the primary and secondary sources listed in the bibliography......»

«Images of Plague and Pestilence Habent sua fata libelli SIXTEENTH CENTURY ESSAYS & STUDIES SERIES General Editor RAYMOND A. MENTZER Montana State University–Bozeman Editorial Board of Sixteenth Century Essays & Studies ELAINE BEILIN MARY B. MCKINLEY Framingham State College University of Virginia MIRIAM U. CHRISMAN HELEN NADER University of Massachusetts, Emerita University of Arizona BARBARA B. DIEFENDORF CHARLES G. NAUERT Boston University University of Missouri, Emeritus PAULA FINDLEN...»

«1 A Tell-Tale Thriller: An Intertextual and Structural Insight into Poe’s Pop Marta Miquel-Baldellou (University of Lleida) Abstract The year 2009 will be remembered for commemorating the bicentenary of Edgar Allan Poe’s birth as well as the premature decease of the King of Pop, Michael Jackson. Despite some initial hesitance, more scholars have increasingly established links between Poe and contemporary musicians like Lou Reed, Allan Parsons Project, as well as Bob Dylan (Rollason 2009),...»

«SROC The Red Rose Orienteering Club BOF Club of the Year 2008 Newsletter January / February 2016 Editor: Dick Collins Editorial Apparently we are a small Club again. A couple of years ago we were re-designated as a small Club on the basis of falling membership numbers. This meant that we competed in the CompassSport Trophy rather than the CompassSport Cup. Having been narrowly beaten by FVO in 2014 we came back to win the trophy at Helsington. We were then redesignated back as a big Club, and...»

«LIPA The Liverpool Institute for Performing Arts The Green Book 2014-15 This information can be made available in others formats by contacting Registry (Registry@lipa.ac.uk). Welcome When I was 11 years old, it was with great pride that I took my seat in the auditorium in the Liverpool Institute for Boys. I suddenly found myself to be part of a large bustling institution. Fortunately, everyone in the school was given a small green book in which there was a mass of information about the school....»

«IMF Country Report No. 15/170 UNITED STATES FINANCIAL SECTOR ASSESSMENT PROGRAM July 2015 FINANCIAL SYSTEM STABILITY ASSESSMENT This Report on the Financial System Stability Assessment on the United States was prepared by a staff team of the International Monetary Fund. It is based on the information available at the time it was completed in June 2015. Copies of this report are available to the public from International Monetary Fund  Publication Services PO Box 92780  Washington, D.C....»

«Heather’s Gift A Story of Five Miscarriages, One Friendship, and Ten Thousand Miracles by Heather McLellan with an introduction by Julia Indichova Dare to reach out your hand into the darkness, to pull another hand into the light. – Norman B. Rice * * * The wisdom of Buddha, says the legendary mythologist Joseph Campbell, is broadcasting every minute of the day, but without a receiving set, there is not much chance that we will ever hear what the Buddha has to say. As I see it, the most...»

«The President‘s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) FY 2012 Capacity Building and Strengthening Framework Version 2.0 President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief -1Table of Contents 1 Background 2 Purpose 2.1 How to Use the Capacity Building Framework 2.1.1 Reporting Requirements 3 Capacity Building, Country Ownership, and Transition 3.1 Transitioning Authority and Responsibilities 4 PEPFAR Capacity Building Framework 5 Monitoring and Evaluating Capacity Building Strategies 5.1...»

«Indian J. Pure Appl. Math., 41(3): 505-533, June 2010 c Indian National Science Academy SUPER rpp SEMIGROUPS ∗ Xiaojiang ∗∗ Yuqi Guo1 and ∗∗∗ K. P. Shum2 Guo, ∗ Department of Mathematics, Jiangxi Normal University, Nanchang, Jiangxi 330022, People’s Republic of China e-mail: xjguo@jxnu.edu.cn; xjguo1967@sohu.com ∗∗ Department of Mathematics, Southwest University, Chongqing 400715, People’s Republic of China e-mail: yqguo259@swnu.edu.cn ∗∗∗ Department of Mathematics,...»

«Community Development Journal: International Symposium September 3-5, 2009, London Paper Title: Community development – building on contradiction Hilde van Vlaenderen & David Neves 1 Introduc tion Community development practitioners continuously search to improve the effectiveness and sustainability of their endeavours. Numerous approaches and strategies have been designed and implemented with varying success. This paper does not intend to promote or to evaluate any particular approach. It...»

«SEMANTIC TOPOGRAPHY AND TEXTUAL MEANING J.L. Lemke City University of New York Brooklyn College School of Education Brooklyn, New York 11210 USA Textual Meaning Why do we make meaning with texts? Why are not clauses or sentences enough? What kinds of meanings do we make with texts beyond what can be made with their constituent units? What do texts as such add to the semantic resources of language? And what do we need to add to the descriptive apparatus of linguistics in order to account for...»

<<  HOME   |    CONTACTS
2016 www.dissertation.xlibx.info - Dissertations, online materials

Materials of this site are available for review, all rights belong to their respective owners.
If you do not agree with the fact that your material is placed on this site, please, email us, we will within 1-2 business days delete him.