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«18 Month Outlook An Assessment of the Reliability and Operability of the Ontario Electricity System FROM APRIL 2015 TO SEPTEMBER 2016 18-Month ...»

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18 Month Outlook

An Assessment of the Reliability and Operability

of the Ontario Electricity System

FROM APRIL 2015 TO SEPTEMBER 2016

18-Month Outlook Update

Executive Summary

With adequate supply and reliable transmission service forecasted, the outlook for the

reliability of Ontario’s electricity system remains positive for the coming summer and

throughout the next 18 months.

The supply situation in the spring of 2015 has improved since the last forecast as several major

nuclear outages have been rescheduled. During normal weather conditions, reserve requirements are expected to be met for summer 2015.

The Green Electron gas plant is currently under construction and is expected to come into service in Q3 of 2015, bringing in close to 300 megawatts (MW) of power to Ontario.

Additionally, about 2,000 MW of new supply – mostly wind and some large solar projects – will be incorporated into the province’s existing generation fleet, for a total of 2,300 MW of new supply over the Outlook period. By the end of the period, the amount of solar generation connected to the transmission grid is expected to grow to 280 MW, complementing the approximately 1,900 MW of embedded solar facilities located within distribution networks. The first storage project of the 34 MW procured last year is expected to come into service before the end of this outlook period.

In addition, a Thunder Bay unit (153 MW) returned to service using advanced biomass fuel and will contribute to the supply in northern Ontario.

Ontario was winter peaking in 2014 for the first time in 10 years due to milder summer weather. With more typical weather, Ontario should be summer peaking in 2015. Embedded solar generation will continue to reduce demand on the transmission system, in particular during summer peaks. For 2015, both the winter and summer peaks will be subject to lower demands due to the Industrial Conservation Initiative (ICI).

There are a number of changes occurring to demand measures over the 18-Month Outlook period. In the spring of 2015, through an RFP process, the IESO will be procuring up to 100 MW of load-following and unit commitment capability from demand-side resources. These pilot projects will help identify opportunities to enhance participation of demand response (DR) in meeting our existing system needs and how to better integrate these resources into the electricity market. A DR auction is currently being developed by the IESO to augment the existing DR capacity and to replace the expiring DR2 and DR3 contracts with a cost-competitive mechanism.

The following table summarizes the forecasted seasonal peak demands over the next 18 months.

March 23, 2015 Public Page ii 18-Month Outlook Update With the addition of significant wind supplies, conditions for surplus baseload generation (SBG) will continue over the outlook period, potentially resulting in nuclear manoeuvring and wind dispatch in real time.

Conclusions & Observations The following conclusions and observations are based on the results of this assessment.

Demand Forecast Ontario’s grid supplied peak demand is expected to decline throughout the period of this • Outlook. Growth in embedded solar and wind generation capacity and on-going conservation initiatives reduce the need for energy from the bulk power system, while also putting downward pressure on peak electricity demands. Conservation, time-of-use rates and the ICI will also put downward pressure on peak demands, and in particular summer peaks. Grid supplied energy demand is expected to remain relatively flat over the forecast horizon as Ontario’s economy expands, whereas the ICI and time of use rates put downward pressure on peaks.

Resource Adequacy Under the planned scenario, reserve requirements are expected to be met for the entire • duration of this Outlook during normal weather, except two weeks during summer of 2016.

The planning reserve is below the requirement for eleven weeks under the extreme weather scenario. These shortfalls are largely due to the planned generator outages in summer-fall 2015 and summer 2016.

For the firm scenario, reserve is below requirements for three weeks during the Outlook • period under normal weather conditions, in summer of 2016. Under extreme weather condition, the reserve is below the requirement for fourteen weeks. The firm scenario excludes any new generating facilities which haven’t reached commercial operation. As a result, the shortfall is more pronounced in the firm scenario than in the planned scenario.

About 2,300 MW of grid-connected generation is expected to be added throughout this • Outlook period, which includes 1,700 MW of wind, 10 MW of hydroelectric, 300 MW of gas, 240 MW of solar and 40 MW of biofuel resources.

Transmission Adequacy Ontario’s transmission system is expected to be able to reliably supply the demand while experiencing normal contingencies defined by planning documents under both normal and extreme weather conditions forecast for this Outlook period.

Several local area supply improvement projects are underway and will be placed in service • during the timeframe of this Outlook. These projects, shown in Appendix B, will help relieve loadings of existing transmission stations and provide additional supply capacity for future load growth. The IESO, Ontario’s transmitters and affected distributors are reviewing system needs and considering solutions in accordance with the Regional Planning Process established by the Ontario Energy Board (OEB). Plans are currently active in the GTA, Greater Ottawa, Southwest Ontario, Northwest Ontario, and Western Ontario regions.





March 23, 2015 Public Page iii 18-Month Outlook Update High voltages in southern Ontario continue to occur, especially during periods of light load.

• High voltages become more acute during these periods when shunt reactors are unavailable. While the IESO and Hydro One are currently managing this situation with day-to-day operating procedures, planning work for the installation of new voltage control devices has been initiated.

Hydro One has begun construction on the Guelph Area Transmission Refurbishment • project, with an expected completion date of Q2 2016. This project improves the transmission capability into the Guelph area by reinforcing the supply into Guelph‐Cedar Transformer Station (TS).

In the Cambridge area, plans to incorporate a second 230/115 kV autotransformer at Preston • TS and associated switching and reactive facilities are being reviewed. Hydro One and the IESO are exploring options that will help meet the IESO’s load restoration criteria following a contingency on the main supply line. Studies will continue to assess the need for additional measures to address longer term needs in the area.

The upgrading of the 115 kV breakers at Leaside TS and Manby TS was completed in Q4 •

2014. Some bus and insulator replacement work at Manby TS is scheduled for completion by Q2 2016. These new breakers facilities together with the Hearn SS rebuild completed in Dec 2013 has increased the short-circuit withstand capability of the Toronto 115 kV system and will allow new generation to be connected in the Manby and Leaside sectors.

A new station, Copeland TS, is planned to be in service in downtown Toronto in Q1 2016.

• The new station will facilitate the refurbishment of the facilities at John TS, while also enhancing the load security in the downtown core.

Work has started on the construction of Clarington TS and is scheduled to be complete by • the fall-2017. This facility will provide additional 500/230 kV transformation capacity to maintain supply reliability following the shut-down of Pickering GS. The 230 kV switching facilities at Clarington TS will also improve reliability to the loads in the Pickering, Ajax, Whitby, Oshawa and Clarington areas.

Operability Conditions for SBG will continue over the Outlook period. However, it is expected that SBG • will be managed effectively via normal market mechanisms including inter-tie scheduling, nuclear maneuvering or shutdown and the dispatch of grid-connected renewable resources.

March 23, 2015 Public Page iv 18-Month Outlook Update Caution and Disclaimer The contents of these materials are for discussion and information purposes and are provided “as is” without representation or warranty of any kind, including without limitation, accuracy, completeness or fitness for any particular purpose. The Independent Electricity System Operator (IESO) assumes no responsibility to you or any third party for the consequences of any errors or omissions. The IESO may revise these materials at any time in its sole discretion without notice to you. Although every effort will be made by the IESO to update these materials to incorporate any such revisions it is up to you to ensure you are using the most recent version.

–  –  –

Table of Contents Executive Summary

Conclusions & Observations

Table of Contents

List of Tables

List of Figures

1 Introduction

2 Updates to This Outlook

2.1 Updates to Demand Forecast

2.2 Updates to Resources

2.3 Updates to Transmission Outlook

2.4 Updates to Operability Outlook

3 Demand Forecast

3.1 Actual Weather and Demand

3.2 Forecast Drivers

3.3 Demand Response, Conservation and Embedded Generation

4 Resource Adequacy Assessment

4.1 Assessments Assumptions

4.2 Capacity Adequacy Assessment

4.3 Energy Adequacy Assessment

5 Transmission Reliability Assessment

5.1 Transmission Outages

5.2 Transmission System Adequacy

6 Operability Assessment

6.1 Operation during Nuclear Outages

6.2 Surplus Baseload Generation (SBG) Forecast

6.3 Gas-Electric Interdependency

–  –  –

List of Tables Table 3.1: Forecast Summary

Table 3.2: Weekly Energy and Peak Demand Forecast

Table 4.1: Existing Generation Capacity as of February 13, 2015

Table 4.2: Committed and Contracted Generation Resources

Table 4.3: Summary of Scenario Assumptions for Resources

Table 4.4: Monthly Historical Hydroelectric Median Values

Table 4.5: Monthly Wind Capacity Contribution Values

Table 4.6: Monthly Solar Capacity Contribution Values

Table 4.7: Summary of Available Resources

Table 4.8: Planned Scenario - Normal Weather: Summary of Zonal Energy

Table 4.9: Planned Scenario - Normal Weather: Ontario Energy Production by Fuel Type

Table 6.1: Monthly Off-Peak Wind Capacity Contribution Values

List of Figures Figure 4.1: Reserve Above Requirement: Firm Scenario with Normal vs. Extreme Weather

Figure 4.2: Reserve Above Requirement: Planned Scenario with Normal vs.

Extreme Weather.............. 13 Figure 4.3: Reserve Above Requirement: Planned Scenario with Present Outlook vs. Previous Outlook.. 14 Figure 4.4: Production by Fuel Type – Apr. 1 to Dec. 31, 2015 (%)

Figure 4.5: Production by Fuel Type – Jan.

1 to Sep. 30, 2016 (%)

Figure 6.1: Minimum Ontario Demand and Baseload Generation

–  –  –

1 Introduction This Outlook covers the 18-month period from April 2015 to September 2016 and supersedes the last Outlook released on November 27, 2014.

The purpose of the 18-Month Outlook is:

To advise market participants of the resource and transmission reliability of the Ontario • electricity system;

To assess potentially adverse conditions that might be avoided through adjustment or • coordination of maintenance plans for generation and transmission equipment; and To report on initiatives being put in place to improve reliability within the 18-month • timeframe of this Outlook.

The contents of this Outlook focus on the assessment of resource and transmission adequacy.

Additional supporting documents are located on the IESO website at http://www.ieso.ca/Pages/Participate/Reliability-Requirements/Forecasts-&-18-MonthOutlooks.aspx This Outlook presents an assessment of resource and transmission adequacy based on the stated assumptions, using the described methodology. Readers may envision other possible scenarios, recognizing the uncertainties associated with various input assumptions, and are encouraged to use their own judgment in considering possible future scenarios.

Security and Adequacy Assessments are published on the IESO website on a weekly and daily basis, and progressively supersede information presented in this report.

Readers are invited to provide comments on this Outlook report or to give suggestions as to the

content of future reports. To do so, please contact us at:

Toll Free: 1-888-448-7777 • Tel: 905-403-6900 • Fax: 905-403-6921 • E-mail: customer.relations@ieso.ca.

–  –  –

2 Updates to This Outlook 2.1 Updates to Demand Forecast The demand forecast is based on actual demand, weather and economic data through to the end of December 2014. The demand forecast has been updated to reflect the most recent economic projections. Actual weather and demand data for January and February 2015 has been included in the tables.

2.2 Updates to Resources The 18-month assessment uses planned generator outages submitted by market participants to the IESO’s Integrated Outage Management System (IOMS) as of February 13, 2015. In addition, updates to available resources include the expected forced outage rates, seasonal generation derates and variable resource contribution as determined by market participants or calculated by the IESO based on actual experience.

The following generators completed the market registration process since the release of the last

Outlook:

Liskeard Solar 1, 3 and 4 – 30 MW •

–  –  –

2.3 Updates to Transmission Outlook The list of transmission projects, planned transmission outages and actual experience with forced transmission outages have been updated from the previous 18-Month Outlook. For this Outlook, transmission outage plans submitted to the IOMS as of January 20, 2015 were used.



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