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«Battle for Globalisations? BRICS and US Mega-Regional Trade Agreements in a Changing World Order MARKO JUUTINEN AND JYRKI KÄKÖNEN © 2016 Observer ...»

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2. Eg. Kumar, Niraj 2014; Baru 2015.

3. Organski, A.F.K (1958), World Politics, New York: Alfred A. Knopf., 55.

4. Atkinson, Carol (2015), 'US Strategic preferences in the early twenty-first century', Defense & Security Analysis 31(1): 35-43.; Dunmire, Patricia L. (2015), 'Beyond Space and Time', Critical Discourse Studies, 12:3, 297-312.

5. 2010 National Security Strategy.

6. Hamilton, Daniel (2014) 'America's Mega-Regional Trade Diplomacy: Comparing TPP and TTIP', The international spectator: Italian Journal of International Affairs 49:1, 81–97.; Tellis 2015.

7. Baldwin, R. (2011), '21st Century Regionalism: Filling the gap between 21st century trade and 29th century trade rules', CEPR Policy Insight, No. 56, 24.

8. Sharma, Shalendra D. (2004), 'Going beyond Cancun: Realizing the development promise of the Doha Agenda', Global Economic Review 33(2): 17–38..

9. TPP; Capling, Ann and Ravenhill, John (2011) 'Multilateralising regionalism:

what role for the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement?', The Pacific Review 24:5, 553–575..

10. Wilson, Jeffrey (2015) 'Mega-Regional Trade Deals in the Asia-Pacific: Choosing Between the TPP and RCEP?', Journal of Contemporary Asia 45:2, 345–353. ;

Hamanaka, Shintaro 2014; Panda 2014.

11. ALBA-TCP was fouded between the socialist leaders of Cuba and Venezuela in

2004. Today its other major members are Ecuador and Bolivia – both minor economies. As the opposition won the recent congressional elections in Venezuela, bloc's biggest economy, the future of the Bolibarian alliance is unclear.

12. SCO 2015.

Endnotes:

13. Bhadrakumar, M.K. (2007), 'NATO of the East', Asia-Pacific Journal: Japan Focus..

14. The Hindu 2015.

15. Indian Ministry of External Affairs 2015.

16. Saran, Samir (2015), 'India's Contemporary Plurilateralism', in David Malone, Srinath Raghavan & Raja Mohan (eds.) The Oxford Handbook of Indian Foreign Policy, Oxford: Oxford University Press, pp. 623¬-635..

17. In IMF classification the developed countries are the G7, euro-countries, Australia, Hong Kong, Island Israel, South Korea, Norway, San Marino, Singapore, Switzerland, New Zealand and Taiwan (Province of China). Among the EU countries, Bulgaria, Kroatia, Poland, Romania ja Hungary are not counted as developed.

18. Among Western countries we include US, Canada, European states, Australia and Japan. This follows from three grounds, a) the prevalence of liberal democracy and free markets, which incorporates all them, b) elite level interconnections which are strongest between the transatlantic triangle including US, EU and Canada, c) the anglo-saxon cultural heritage (which excludes Japan). See Fergusson 2011 and Carroll 2010.

19. Brzezinsky1997;Huntington1997.

20. Clinton, William J. (2000), 'Letter to Congressional Leaders on Permanent Normal Trade Relations Status With China', in Weekly Compilation of Presidential Document Vol 36(4), Office of the Federal Register, National Archives and Records Administration, January 24, 2000..

21. Huntington 1997; Fergusson 2011; Malhotra 2013.

22. Hobson, John M. (2004), Eastern Origins of Western Civilization, Cambridge:

Cambridge University Press..

23. Various BRICS Joint Declarations and RIC Joint Communiqués.

24. Wallerstein, Immanuel (1984), The Politics of the World-Economy. The States, the Movements and the Civilizations, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.;

Held & McGrew 2002; Woods 2000; Rosenau 2002, 72, 73; Gilpin 2001; O'Brien & Williams 2007.

25. E.g. Wallerstein 1984; Robinson & Harris 2000; Carroll 2010; Ikenberry 2001.

26. Summers, Lawrence (1991), 'Regionalism and the World Trading System', in Lawrence Summers (ed.) Policy Implications of Trade and Currency Zones, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Kansas City..

27. See Mastanduno 2002.

28. Sleboda 2015.

29. Barma, Naazneen, Giacomo Chiozza, Ely Ratnerand and Steven Weber (2009) 'A World Without the West? Empirical Patterns and Theoretical Implications', Chinese Journal of International Politics 2:4, 525-544..

30. Ibid.

31. Sengupta, Jayshree (2014), 'BRICS and the new international world order', ORF Papers, October 29, 2014.

Battle for Globalisations?

32. Eg., Kumar, 2013: 27.

33. Broomfield2003.

34. Brzezinski1997.

35. Mearsheimer, John J. (2010) 'The Gathering Storm: China's Challenge to U.S.

Power in Asia', The Fourth Annual Michael Hintze Lecture in International Security, University of Sydney, August 4.

36. Drezner 2014.

37. Scott, James and Wilkinson, Rorden (2013) 'China Threat? Evidence from the WTO', Journal of World Trade 47:4, 761–782..

38. Robinson 2015; Bond and Garcia2015.

39. Ikenberry, John (2008) 'The rise of China and the future of the West', Foreign Affairs 87:1; Snyder 2012.

40. Laidi 2012; see also Haukkalaand Jakobson2009; Käkönen 2014; 2015.

41. Schmalz et al. 2012; Mielniczuk 2013; Babb 2013; Fourcade 2013.





42. Nölke, Andreas, ten Brink, Tobias, Claar, Simone and May, Christian (2014) 'Domestic structures, foreign economic policies and global economic order:

Implications from the rise of large emerging countries', European Journal of I n t e r n a t i o n a l Re l a t i o n s, N o v e m b e r 2 5, 2 0 1 4. D o i : 1 0. 1 1 7 7 / 1354066114553682.; Stephen 2014.

43. McNally, Christopher (2012) 'Sino-Capitalism. China's Reemergence and the International Political Economy', World Politics 64:4, 741–776; Van der Pijl, Kees (2012) 'Is the East Still Red? The Contender State and Class Struggles in China', Globalizations 9:4, 503–516; Jiang 2014.

44. Stuenkel 2014.

45. Capling & Ravenhill 2011.

46. Bradford, Anu (2012), 'The Brussels Effect', Northwestern University Law Review 107(1): 1–67.

47. TPP; EC 10.2.2015.

48. Capling & Ravenhill 2011; Panda 2014.

49. Nataraj et al. 2015.

50. Hoekman and Kostecki 2001.

51. Schneider 2014, 175

52. Bhagwati et al. 2015.

53. Interview, Juutinen 2015; also Snyder 2012; Stephen, Matthew D. (2014) 'Rising powers, global capitalism and liberal global governance: A historical materialist account of the BRICs challenge', European Journal of International Relations 20:4, 912–938.

54. Tammen, Ronald L., Jacek Kugler, Douglas Lemke, Allen C. Stam III, Carole Alsharabati, Mark Andrew Abdollahin, Brian Elfrid and A.F.K. Organski (2000) Power Transition Strategies for the 21st Century, Washington: CQ Press: 15–20, 42.

Endnotes:

55. RAND (2015), The U.S.-China Military Scorecard Forces, Geography, and the E v o l v i n g B a l a n c e o f P o w e r, 1 9 9 6 – 2 0 1 7. A v a i l a b l e a t, http://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR392.html.

56. Although in global value chains US and the developed countries still are dominant – which aspect is excluded from a focus on economic productivity.

57. Tammen et al. 2000, 15-20, 42.

58. Goldman Sachs Group 2007.

59. Yueh 2010: 10, 21.

60. PwC (2015) 'The World in 2050. Will the shift in global economic power continue?', Pwc, accessed at http://www.pwc.com/gx/en/issues/theeconomy/assets/world-in-2050-february-2015.pdf, 13 July 2015.

61. PwC 2015: 40.

62. Huntington 1999: 409; O'Brien and Williams 2007.

63. Gruzalski 2015.

64. Varoufakis, Yani (2013) The Global Minotaur, London: Zed Books.

65. Vermeiren 2013.

66. Jacques 2012: 358; Kumar 2014: 26; Pieterse 2011: 39.

67. Kumar 2014, 34.

68. Cohen, Benjamin J. (2012) 'The Yuan Tomorrow? Evaluating China's Currency Internationalisation Strategy', New Political Economy 17:3, 361–371: 362.

69. Jacques 2012, 480.

70. Cohen 2012: 369; Kumar 2014: 34.

71. E.g., Kumar, 2014: 37.

72. See also Panda, 2013: 63.

73. Cohen 2012: 368.

74. Khilnani et al. 2012: 110.

75. AIIB 2015.

76. Subacchi, Paolo (2015) 'The AIIB Is a Threat to Global Economic Governance. The era of U.S. dominated global economic order is ending but the fragmented governance system isn't the best replacement', Foreign Policy, 31 March, accessed at https://foreignpolicy.com/2015/03/31/the-aiib-is-a-threat-to-global-economicgovernance, 1 April 2015; Ratner 2014; Fleming-Williams 2015.

77. BRICS VII 2015: 24.

78. Khilnani et al. 2012: 110.

79. BRICS VI 2014: 11–12.

80. Subacchi 2015; Ratner 2014.

81. BRIC I, 2009: 1–11; G20, 2008, 2009.

82. G20, 2009.

83. BRIC I, 2009: 12–15.

Battle for Globalisations?

84. BRIC II, 2010, 1.

85. NIC 2012: x.

86. BRIC II, 2010: 2.

87. BRIC II, 2010: 27.

88. BRICS III, 2011: 1, 15, 27, II.

89. Drezner 2014.

90. BRICS IV 2012:13; V 2013: 10.

91. BRICS VII 2015: 2.

92. IMF 2015b.

93. NDB 2014, art 2.

94. BRICS 2015 VII, 15.

95. NDB 2014, art. 5, 6, 8, 11.

96. NDB, art. 7.

97. IMF 2015a

98. Sengupta 2014

99. ORF 2015.

100. IMF 2015a

101. World Bank 2015b.

102. World Bank 2015c.

103. Williamson 1990

104. Babb, Sarah (2013) 'The Washington Consensus as transnational policy Paradigm:

Its origins, trajectory and likely successor', Review of International Political Economy 20:2, 268–297; Glinavos, 2008

105. World Bank 2015b, 19; Stern et al. 1.5.2013.

106. Stiglitz 2002; Chossudovsky 1997.

107. ORF 2015, V.

108. ORF 2015, III, IV.

109. See for instance Fourcade 2013; Schmalz et al. 2012; Mielniczuk 2013; Nölke et al. 2014.

110. BRICS IV 2012: 5–6; V 2013: 6–7; VI, 2014: 1, 6–9; VII, 2015: 11.

,,

111. BRICS VI, 2014: 6–9.

112. See Stephen 2014.

113. Eg. Hoekman & Kostecki 2001. Hoekman, Bernard M. & Kostecki, Michel M.

(2001), The Political Economy of the World Trading System. The WTO and Beyond, Oxford: Oxford University Press.

114. Nölke et al., 2014.

115. BRICS VI, 2014: 23.

Endnotes:

116. Wilson, 2015: 347; Capling and Ravenhill, 2011: 555: Subramanian, Arvind (2015) 'Ideas and power in contemporary trade development' in Baru, Sanaya and Dogra, Suvi (eds.) Power Shifts and New Blocs in the Global Trading System, London: Routledge, pp. 39–60: 53.

117. BRICS VII, 2015: 17.

118. SEP 2015: 2, 27–8.

,

119. SEP 2015: 6, 8.

,

120. BRICS III, 2011: 9; VII, 2015: 6.

121. CFP 2013: 13–14.

,

122. CFP 2013: 20, 55, 68, 71.

,

123. Mäkinen and Turoma 2014.

124. Mearsheimer 2014.

125. Eg. Duchatek 1982; Elazar, Daniel J (1998) Constitutionalizing Globalization.

The Postmodern Revival of Confederal Arrangements, Oxford: Rowman & Littlefield Publishers.

126. Buzan 2014: 393

127. Ikenberry, 2008; Scott and Wilkinson, 2013; Chan, 2014; Robinson, 2015.

128. Jinping September 22, 2015.

129. Dreyer 2015.

130. Jinping September 22, 2015.

131. Van der Pijl 2012. William Robinson (2015) in contrast argues that the Chinese economic elites indeed seem to be willing to enter the transnational capitalist class. Even if true, that does not necessarily mean the loss of confucian and/or Chinese identity nor socialization with the Western counterparts.

132. The Hindu February 29, 2012.

133. Khinali et al. 2012, 123-134.

134. Keshab Chandra Ratha & Sushanta Kumar Mahapatra 2015.

135. E.g., Brütsch and Papa, 2012; Laidi, 2012.

136. BRICS VI, 2014; VII, 2015.

137. BRICS IV 2012: 20–22.

,

138. BRICS V 2013: 26–28.

,

139. BRICS VI, 2014: 38, 41; VII, 2015: 39, 41.

140. Juutinen, 2013: 96–7.

141. Burton 2015.

142. BRICS VII, 2015: 6.

143. Stuenkel 2014; Destradi & Jakobeit 2015.

144. Puri 2012.

145. USRT, 2015; 2013.

Battle for Globalisations?

146. World Bank, 2015.

147. USTR, 2011, 2013.

148. Ibid.

149. EC, 2014.

150. USTR, 2011, 2013.

151. Bartsch, 2014.

152. Lamy, Pascal (2015) 'Is trade multilateralism being threatened by regionalism?', in Baru, Sanaya and Dogra, Suvi (eds.) Power Shifts and New Blocs in the Global Trading System, London: Routledge, pp. 61–78, 67–8.

153. USTR, 2011; 2013.

154. EC 10.2.2015.

155. USTR, 2011, 2013.

156. Capling and Ravenhill, 2011: 560–561.

157. De Micco 2013: 26.

158. Anti-Counterfeiting Trade Agreement.

159. Bhagwati, Jagdish, Krishna, Pravin and Panagariya, Arvind (2015) 'Where is the world trade system heading?', in Baru, Sanaya and Dogra, Suvi (eds.) Power Shifts and New Blocs in the Global Trading System, London: Routledge, pp. 17–38: 25.

160. Various interviews Indian think tanks and industry organizations, Juutinen 2015.

On the other hand, India is also an emerging economy with higly competetive sectors in textile and rise production. For this reason the developing country argument for safeguards and import restrictions does not hold as much water as it used to.



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