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Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS —2012-2022 Occupations and industries related to healthcare are projected to add the most new jobs between 2012 and 2022, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported today. Total employment is projected to increase 10.8 percent, or 15.6 million, during the decade.
In addition to projecting employment for each detailed occupation, BLS depicts the education, related work experience, and on-the-job training typically needed for occupations. Occupations that typically require postsecondary education for entry are expected, on average, to grow faster than occupations that require a high school diploma or less.
Industry employment BLS analyzes future demand for different types of goods and services, and then projects the employment necessary to produce them. Most of the 10.8 percent employment growth is projected to be in service providing industries.
The health care and social assistance sector is projected to grow at an annual rate of 2.6 percent, adding 5.0 million jobs between 2012 and 2022. This accounts for nearly one-third of the total projected increase in jobs. The growth reflects, in part, the demand for healthcare workers to address the needs of an aging population.
Employment in the construction sector is projected to grow 2.6 percent annually. This equates to
1.6 million new jobs over the 2012-22 decade, the most among goods-producing sectors and third most among all major industry sectors. Despite expected fast growth, construction sector employment in 2022 is projected to be below the peak level.
Projected annual employment rate of change by major industry sector, 2012‐22 Occupation employment Projected industry employment is distributed among occupations based on how industries are expected to use those occupations.
-Four major occupational groups are projected to grow more than 20 percent—nearly double the overall growth—from 2012 to 2022: healthcare support occupations (28.1 percent), healthcare practitioners and technical occupations (21.5 percent), construction and extraction occupations (21.4 percent), and personal care and service occupations (20.9 percent).
Projected rate of employment change by major occupational group, 2012‐22 Education and training In addition to projecting employment for each detailed occupation, BLS depicts the education, related work experience, and on-the-job training typically needed for occupations.
Nineteen of the 30 occupations projected to grow fastest from 2012 to 2022 typically require some form of postsecondary education for entry.
Two-thirds of the 30 occupations with the largest projected employment increase from 2012 to 2022 typically do not require postsecondary education for entry.
Occupations typically requiring postsecondary education for entry generally had higher median wages ($57,770) in 2012 and are projected to grow faster (14.0 percent) between 2012 and 2022 than occupations that typically require a high school diploma or less ($27,670 and 9.1 percent).
Occupations that do not typically require postsecondary education are projected to add 8.8 million jobs between 2012 and 2022, accounting for more than half of all new jobs. These occupations employed nearly two-thirds of workers in 2012.
Occupations that typically require an apprenticeship are projected to grow 22.2 percent from 2012 to 2022, faster than any other on-the-job training assignment. (See table 7.)
Employment growth is not the only source of job openings. BLS also projects job openings resulting from the need to replace workers who retire or otherwise permanently leave an occupation. Job openings due to replacement needs are expected in every occupation, even in those projected to decline in employment.
Over the 2012-22 decade, 50.6 million total job openings are expected. While growth will lead to many openings, more than two-thirds—67.2 percent—are projected to come from replacement needs.
In more than 4 out of 5 occupations, openings from replacement needs are projected to exceed openings from growth.
Nearly two-thirds of all job openings are expected to be in occupations that typically do not require postsecondary education for entry.
Twenty-two of the 30 occupations with the largest number of projected job openings are classified as not typically requiring postsecondary education.
What is STEM?
The simplest definition is what it stands for, which is science, technology, engineering, and mathematics. There are many organizations that are dedicated to this topic and they define this with their own objectives. The ultimate goal of STEM education is to encourage students to take an interest in STEM subjects at an early age. This should be beneficial to them when they enter the jobs market, and in turn it should benefit the greater economy. It is a simple definition with a straight forward goal.
Why is STEM education important? STEM educated workers can expect to make significantly higher salaries over their lifetime. Studies have already shown that people with college degrees make 84 percent more income during their lifetime than high school graduates. More importantly, recent surveys clearly show that the actual college major greatly effects lifetime earning potential. Out of 171 college degrees, STEM majors come out ahead. For example, a person with a petroleum engineering major can expect to make $120,000 a year, and degrees in math and computer science earn as much as $98,000 annually. In comparison, degrees that are not STEM related, such as early childhood education and counseling psychology only pays $36,000 and $29,000 a year respectively.
Today's STEM Realities
The U.S. Department of Commerce estimates that jobs in science, technology, engineering, and math (STEM) will grow 17 percent by 2018—nearly double the growth for non-STEM fields. By 2018, the U.S. will have more than 1.2 million unfilled STEM jobs because there will not be enough qualified workers to fill them. STEM is where jobs are today and where the job growth will be in the future.
The United States Commerce Department states that science, technology, engineering, and mathematics fields earn 26 percent more on average. In addition to having higher earnings, these careers are less likely to deal with a job loss. In short, individuals in STEM-related careers will have higher overall earnings and better job security than with those in careers outside the fields of science, technology, engineering and mathematic.
Despite the growing need for STEM degrees, the United States is not able to produce enough workers skilled in these fields. In the 21st century, 60 percent of the new careers that will be created are in this field, but only 20 percent of the workforce has the necessary skills. By 2018, the United States may face a gap of three million highly skilled employees. Many of the new jobs require post-secondary education.
The biggest issue is that American universities are not producing enough graduates with a degree in STEM fields.
For example, only one-third of bachelor's degrees are granted in engineering or science in the United States compared to the total number awarded in Asian universities. Due to this, the United States is only 17th globally for awarding science degrees.
This means that the United States is gradually becoming less competitive in the global marketplace. A new study shows that the United States is 6th out of 40 nations in terms of innovation and competitiveness. To create this study, researchers looked at educational attainment, capital investment, funding for research and scientific research.
Northern Illinois’ STEM Outreach delivers off-campus programs and on-campus activities designed to increase science, technology, engineering, and mathematics literacy and enthusiasm among P-12 students, their families, and educators. Our office provides a central place to find information on the numerous outreach programs offered by NIU’s STEM departments and the colleges.
NIU has long been involved in public programs such as the very popular Haunted Physics Laboratory at Halloween, Davis Hall Observatory visits, chemistry demonstration shows, WYSE competitions, and the Frontier Physics Road Shows. In 2008, STEM Outreach was established as part of NIU’s Center for P-20 Engagement, which coordinates activities across the continuum from pre-school through graduate school. This change has increased the impact of the university’s diverse STEM programs for the public.
NIU STEM Outreach has four purposes:
1. Build interest and excitement about STEM at NIU through standards-based presentations at schools.
2. Provide opportunities for hands-on experiences with STEM subjects by conducting extracurricular activities including clubs, competitions, and traveling hands-on museums.
3. Raise educational aspirations, knowledge of STEM, and interest in attending NIU by coordinating activities such as structured campus visits, special events, and summer camps at NIU’s campuses.
4. Improve teaching of STEM subjects by collaborating with teacher preparation and professional development activities in four NIU colleges.
The views expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of Lumina Foundation or the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, their officers, or employees.
STEM includes Computer occupations (computer technicians, computer programmers, and computer scientists), Mathematical 1 Science occupations, Engineers and Engineering Technicians, Life and Physical Science occupations, and Architects, Surveyors, and Technicians. We do not include social scientists and we do include sub-baccalaureate technical workers as STEM workers.
When discussing supply and demand for STEM workers, we use “supply” and “demand” as shorthand for relative supply and 2 relative demand.
We define STEM competencies as the set of cognitive knowledge, skills, and abilities that are associated with STEM occupations.
3 We also include and analyze noncognitive work interests and work values associated with motivation and high performance in STEM occupations.
Sales and Office Support and Community and Arts are the exceptions. The U.S. labor force grew by 44 percent, while high-level 4
There is some discrepancy in how we rank the fastest-growing occupations, and this is related to how we rank Healthcare. We 5 can split Healthcare into two separate occupational categories: Healthcare Support occupations and Healthcare Professional occupations. If we keep Healthcare as one broad group, STEM is the second-fastest growing occupational cluster. However, if we list Healthcare Support and Healthcare Professional occupations separately, then STEM is the third-fastest growing cluster.
Without sufficient reform of the rules regarding the selection of prevailing wages for H-1B visas, the likelihood of added downward pressure on wages within these occupations remains high.
The ability of U.S. students to transition outside of their initial field of study, and later at several points in their career, is a mark 7 of the immense flexibility of opportunities in the U.S. labor market. In Europe, for example, the connection between education and training is far more rigid, as many of their apprenticeship programs link education and career training with occupations at a much earlier age, and are more difficult to transition out of.
Compared with other fields of study, STEM majors are “middle-of-the-road” in terms of attrition of its graduates into other fields 8 (if we remove the sub-baccalaureate STEM workers). For example, the comparable rate for teachers is substantially higher at the beginning of their career, while those in the computing fields have the highest retention rates later in their career (defined as 10 years into the workforce).
Many students drop out of the STEM pipeline between high school and college, or in college. These students either do not enroll 9 in college or do not complete a degree—any degree. Thirty percent of students who score in the top quartile on a math skills test in high school, clearly demonstrating abilities in STEM, do not have any college degree eight years after graduating high school.
This represents an enormous pool of talent from which we could potentially draw to get more workers with STEM competencies.
Almost half of students in the second quartile on the same test do not have a college degree eight years after graduating high school.
These numbers only include students with Bachelor’s degrees. Our diversion analysis details only Bachelor’s degrees.
10 :: STEM ::
Oftentimes, managers are still working in field, but these workers are counted as managerial workers. However, in most cases, 11 an individual would not have had an opportunity to perform this job without previous STEM training.
Our analysis of STEM competencies relies on the Occupational Information Network (O*NET) administered and updated by the 12 Department of Labor/Employment and Training Administration, Version 14.0.
This is not to suggest, of course, that all STEM competencies are transferable across the economy. Indeed, we are at this point 13 referring to the subset of knowledge, skills, and abilities (defined later) traditionally associated with STEM occupations that are increasingly demanded by many other types of employers outside of STEM occupations.
We identify STEM work values and STEM work interests as noncognitive competencies required for success in the occupation.
It is difficult to pinpoint exactly how many STEM workers are ideal for increasing innovation economy-wide. In theory, we should 15 continue to add STEM workers and STEM jobs as long as each additional worker produces added value. We limit our measure of STEM demand to the more prosaic standard of projected job growth in industries and occupations that employ traditional STEM workers.
Please see footnote 5.
16 In the Georgetown University Center on Education and the Workforce’s 2010 report, Help Wanted: Projections of Jobs and Educa