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«DIPLOMA THESIS Linking Climate Change with Food Security in the highlands of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Northwest Pakistan Presented by: Martin Kienzler ...»

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DIPLOMA THESIS

Linking Climate Change with Food Security

in the highlands of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa,

Northwest Pakistan

Presented by:

Martin Kienzler

Julius-Maximilians-Universität Würzburg

Faculty of Philosophy I

Institute of Geography and Geology

Physical Geography

DIPLOMA THESIS

Linking Climate Change with Food Security

in the highlands of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Northwest Pakistan Presented by Martin Kienzler, born on June, 25th 1985 in Titisee-Neustadt to obtain the degree of

DIPLOMGEOGRAPH

(Dipl.-Geogr.) Supervisor: Prof. Dr. Heiko Paeth, University of Würzburg 2nd Supervisor: Prof. Dr. Ulrike Müller-Böker, University of Zurich February 16th, 2012 Martin Kienzler Friedrichstr. 15 D - 97082 Würzburg mail: nitramus@gmx.de phone: +49 (0) 176 20797665 Acknowledgments This thesis could not have been accomplished successfully without the numerous people who supported me in different ways. First of all I want to thank Prof. Dr. Ulrike Müller-Böker, who enabled me to work on this topic and supported me in conducting the field trip to Pakistan in the frame of the NCCR North-South project (RP2). Specials thanks go to Prof. Dr. Heiko Paeth for supervising my thesis and answering numerous questions. I would like to appreciate the help of all the colleagues at the Department of Physical Geography, first of all Birgit Mannig, who patiently helped me out of the jungle of programming a thousand times.

I would like to express a special thanks to Dr. Babar Shahbaz for welcoming me warmly in Islamabad and Faisalabad and the steady correspondence as well as the staff of the Sustainable Development Policy Institute (SDPI), especially Dr. Abid Suleri, Taliman and Nazim Ali for technical and logistical support, long discussions and an enjoyable time at the office. Thank you to Maaz Ismail, who helped me to understand the farmers of Kaghan valley and secured a pleasant stay within the Himalayan mountains.

Kaiser Turi, thank you so much for attending me through all of northern Pakistan for weeks and for translating the numerous discussions in Chitral. As well I want to thank all the farmers of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa who received me generously and for the endless cups of black tea. I want to thank all of you for making my trip to Pakistan unforgettable!

My most special thanks go to my parents who supported me whenever they could and helped to arouse my fascination of the farthest countries and mountains of the world and always encouraged me when I went to explore them - Thank you! I also want to thank my friends for the neverending time of studying and travelling around the world. Anna, thank you for withstanding all the time I spent in the remote mountains of Pakistan!

I Abstract The diploma thesis “Linking climate change with food security in the highlands of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Northwest Pakistan” is embedded in the research project “Livelihood Futures in Resource-scarce Areas”, being part of the NCCR North-South project (RP2).

Aim of the study primarily is the analysis of the characteristics of climate change in the region of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) between 1901 and 2009 and the prediction of possible future changes until the end of the 21st century. Statistical trend analysis of a global gridded observation dataset (CRU) as well as of the output of a regional climate model (REMO) with a higher horizontal resolution is applied. For comparison the data of 13 meteorological stations of the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) is consulted. As a secondary data source qualitative interviews with farmers are used.

The perception of the local population concerning climate change shall help to validate the results of the climate analysis and reveal if there already occur changes in agriculture, which can be related to climate change.

The following results are obtained through trend analysis of the two data sets: Both compositions show a slight warming trend of annual mean temperatures over Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP). While temperatures during winter are increasing strongly, the spring and summer months are marked by a distinct cooling trend, especially within the monsoon belt in central KP. Extensive deforestation is made responsible for that. Daily minimum temperatures are decreasing at a higher rate than maximum temperatures.

The signals of precipitation trends are less distinct. Generally monsoonal rainfall during summer shows a decreasing tendency during the last three decades. This is probably due to human activities such as intensified agriculture, the associated land-use change, irrigation and the emission of aerosols. Precipitation is supposed to be more erratic and a higher frequency of heavy rainfall events is recorded. In the regions which are not affected by the South Asian summer monsoon winter precipitation shows an increasing trend. The development of the mean climatology turns out to bring local benefits for high-mountain agriculture up to a certain extent, except that water scarcity seems to be more serious during summer. However the increasing frequency of climate extreme events contains a high risk for food security.

Regarding future simulations of REMO based on the IPCC SRES scenario A1B, it is obvious that the mountainous parts of northwestern Pakistan will suffer a stronger warming than the global average, especially during the winter months. The magnitude of warming often exceeds 5◦ C per century. The temperatures in the southern part of KP and the lower parts of the mountainous regions will increase at a slower rate. The temperature thresholds, at which the beneficial impacts of climate change are supposed to turn into risks will distinctly be exceed by the end of the 21st century. A further weakening of the summer monsoon is projected along with a distinct reduction of precipitation during the II summer months within the central parts and the semi-arid south of KP. This will lead to an aggravation of water availability. In contrast the mountain regions north of the monsoon belt will receive more winter precipitation until 2100. Thus water availability is supposed to be enhanced during spring and early summer, when rainfall amounts are marginal.





Qualitative interviews with farmers were conducted in two case studies, which represent two different climate regimes: The monsoon affected Kaghan valley and the Chitral district, where most of precipitation occurs in winter. The results of the interviews concerning climate development agree with the results of statistical trend analysis quite good. However the interviewed persons did not relate any changes in cropping patterns or yields to climate changes. They rather referred changes to technological progress such as the implementation of irrigation systems, enhanced knowledge and the usage of chemical fertilizer.

III Zusammenfassung Die Diplomarbeit “Linking climate change with food security in the highlands of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Northwest Pakistan” wurde im Rahmen des Forschungsprojekts “Livelihood Futures in Resource-scarce Areas” verfasst, welches Teil des NCCR North-South (RP 2) Projekts ist.

Ziel der Arbeit ist es, die Ausprägungen des Klimawandels in der Region Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) im Zeitraum 1901 bis 2009 zu analysieren und mögliche künftige Entwicklungen bis zum Ende des 21. Jahrhunderts abzuschätzen. Dabei wird eine statistische Trendanalyse sowohl eines globalen Beobachtungsdatensatzes (CRU) als auch der Simulationen eines regionalen Klimamodells (REMO) mit höherer horizontaler Auflösung angewendet. Zum Vergleich werden die Daten von dreizehn meteorologischen Stationen des Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) herangezogen. Als weitere Datenquelle werden die Ergebnisse von qualitativen Interviews mit ortsansässigen Bauern verwendet.

Die Wahrnehmung der lokalen Bevölkerung bezüglich klimatischer Veränderungen soll zur Validierung der Ergebnisse der Trendanalysen dienen und zeigen, ob sich in der Landwirtschaft Veränderungen abzeichnen, die dem Klimawandel zuzurechnen sind.

Die folgenden Ergebnisse wurden durch Trendanalysen der zwei Datensätze erlangt.

Beide Kompositionen zeigen einen relativ leichten Erwärmungstrend der Jahresmitteltemperaturen über Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Während die Temperaturen im Winter stark angestiegen sind, zeichnen sich die Frühlings- und Sommermonate durch einen deutlichen Abkühlungstrend aus, der vor allem im Monsungürtel im zentralen KP sichtbar ist. Im Allgemeinen wird eine starke Abholzung in der Region dafür verantwortlich gemacht.

Dabei sind die Tagestiefsttemperaturen stärker zurückgegangen als die Höchsttemperaturen. Bezüglich des Niederschlags sind weniger deutliche Trends zu erkennen. Im Allgemeinen zeigen monsunale Sommerniederschläge eine rückläufige Tendenz während der letzten drei Jahrzehnte. Hierfür werden anthropogene Faktoren wie intensivierte Landwirtschaft und damit verbundene Landnutzungsänderungen, Bewässerung und der Ausstoss von Aerosolen verantwortlich gemacht. Starkniederschlagsereignisse sind dabei deutlich zahlreicher geworden. In Regionen, die nicht vom Sommermonsun beeinflusst werden, zeigen die Winterniederschläge eine zunehmende Tendez. Die Entwicklung der mittleren Temperatur- und Niederschlagswerte bringt einige Vorteile für die Landwirtschaft in den Hochgebirgsregionen mit sich, allerdings nur bis zu einem gewissen Punkt. Die zunehmende Zahl klimatischer Extremereignisse birgt jedoch ein grosses Risiko für die Ernährungssicherheit der Region.

Betrachtet man Zukunftssimulationen des Modells REMO, die auf dem IPCC SRES Szenario A1B basieren, wird eine starke Erwärmung der Gebirgsregionen Khyber Pakhtunkhwas deutlich, die über dem globalen Durchschnittswert liegt. Am stärksten wird die Erwärmung im Winter und in den hochgelegenen Gebieten ausfallen und teilweise IV über 5◦ C pro Jahrhundert betragen. Im Süden und in den tieferen Bereichen der Region werden die Temperaturen weniger stark ansteigen. Allerdings werden bestimmte Grenzwerte gegen Ende des 21. Jahrhunderts deutlich überschritten werden und die Vorteile einer Klimaveränderung in Risiken übergehen. Eine weitere Abschwächung des Monsuns wird simuliert, was einen weiteren Rückgang der Sommerniederschläge in den betreffenden Gebieten bedeutet. Dies kann im Allgemeinen zu einer Verknappung der Wasserverfügbarkeit führen. Im Gegensatz dazu werden die Winterniederschläge nördlich des Monsungürtels deutlich ansteigen. Dadurch kann mehr Wasser in Form von Schnee und Eis gespeichert werden, was in den trockenen Frühlings- und Sommermonaten von Vorteil sein wird.

Qualitative Interviews wurden in zwei Beispielregionen durchgeführt, die die unterschiedlichen Klimaregime der Region verdeutlichen. Das vom Monsunregen abhängige Kaghan-Tal und das sommertrockene Gebiet um Chitral, in dem die Landwirtschaft an Niederschläge im Winter gebunden ist. Die Ergebnisse der Interviews stimmen gut mit den Ergebnissen der Trendanalysen überein. Allerdings stellten die befragten Personen keine Verbindung zwischen Veränderungen in Ernteerträgen oder Anbaumustern und klimatischen Veränderungen fest, sondern verbanden sie eher mit technologischen Fortschritten, wie dem Nutzen von Bewässerungssystemen, verbessertem Wissen oder dem Einsatz von chemischen Düngemitteln.

–  –  –

2.1 Annual global mean observed temperatures 1850 to 2007.......... 4

2.2 Global annual surface temperature trends for different periods of the 20th century..................................... 5

2.3 Area-weighted mean annual temperature over Pakistan 1901-2007..... 8

2.4 Absolute and percentage trends in wheat yields with temperature changes 13

–  –  –

4.1 The grids of climate analysis.......................... 28

4.2 The distribution of PMD meteorological stations in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 30

4.3 The topography of Pakistan and the location of the case studies...... 31

–  –  –

7.1 Annual, summer and winter mean, maximum and minimum temperature development of Chitral (1965-2009)...................... 68

7.2 Annual, summer and winter mean precipitation development of Balakot (1971-2009) and Chitral (1965-2009)..................... 68

–  –  –

CRU Climate Research Unit ENSO El Niño Southern Oscillation FATA Federally Administered Tribal Areas GCM General Circulation Model

–  –  –

masl Meters above sea level NCCR National Centre of Competence in Research NAO North Atlantic Oscillation NWFP North West Frontier Province PMD Pakistan Meteorological Department RCM Regional Climate Model SASM South Asian Summer Monsoon SDPI Sustainable Development Policy Institute SST Sea Surface Temperature XI 1 Introduction

1.1 Motivation and objectives In the course of global climate change South Asia is considered one of the most vulnerable regions (Sivakumar & Stefanski, 2011). “Alterations in temperature and precipitation, melting of the Himalayan glaciers and degradation of natural resources and the environment” (Lal et al., 2011) are the main issues affecting the people of the region.

Combined with a strong growth of population food security is progressively coming under pressure: “With only 3.3% of the world’s land area, this region [South Asia] has to feed one fifth of the world’s population” (Rasul, 2010).

Food security describes the situation when “all people, at all times, have physical, social and economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food (..)” and consists of the four key elements availability, stability, access and utilization, food availability being the fundamental one. Climate change is supposed to affect all four of these dimensions in different ways (Schmidhuber & Tubiello, 2007).

Agricultural production is the “foundation of food availability” (Ahmad & Farooq,



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