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«A thesis submitted to Imperial College, London for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy by Robert Sansom October 2014 Control and Power Group ...»

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DECARBONISING LOW GRADE

HEAT FOR A LOW CARBON

FUTURE

A thesis submitted to

Imperial College, London

for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy

by

Robert Sansom

October 2014

Control and Power Group

Department of Electrical and Electronic Engineering

IMPERIAL COLLEGE LONDON

Robert Sansom October 2014

2

Robert Sansom October 2014 The copyright of this thesis rests with the author and is made available under a Creative Commons Attribution Non-Commercial No Derivatives licence.

Researchers are free to copy, distribute or transmit the thesis on the condition that they attribute it, that they do not use it for commercial purposes and that they do not alter, transform or build upon it. For any reuse or redistribution, researchers must make clear to others the licence terms of this work.

3 Robert Sansom October 2014 4 Robert Sansom October 2014

DECLARATION

This is to certify that:

1. The material contained within this thesis is my own work.

2. No part of the work referred to in this thesis has been presented in support of an application for another degree or qualification in this or any other University.

3. Other work is appropriately referenced.

4. This thesis is less than 100,000 words in length excluding references and any appendices.

Robert Sansom 5 Robert Sansom October 2014 6 Robert Sansom October 2014

ABSTRACT

More energy is consumed in the UK for heat than either transport or electricity and yet until recently little attention has been given to decarbonising heat to meet the UK's 2050 greenhouse gas targets. The challenges are immense as over 80% of households in the UK use gas for space and water heating. To achieve the UK's greenhouse gas targets will necessitate heat to be almost completely decarbonised and will thus require a transition from gas for heating to a low carbon alternative.

However, there is a lack of consensus over which low carbon heat technologies householders should be encouraged to adopt as projections of these vary significantly.

This thesis commences by reviewing those projections and identifying the possible reasons for the variations. Low carbon heat technologies suitable for large scale deployment are identified and a heat demand model developed from which demand profiles can be constructed. An integrated heat and electricity investment model is then developed which includes electricity generation assets but also district heating assets such as combined heat and power plant, network storage and large network heat pumps. A core input into this model is the heat demand profiles. The investment model enables the interaction between heat and electricity assets to be evaluated and so using scenarios combined with sensitivities examines the economics and carbon emissions of the low carbon residential heating technologies previously identified. Throughout this analysis the equivalent cost for gas heating is used as a comparator.

The results suggest that district heating is an attractive option which is robust under most outcomes. However, its economic viability is crucially dependent on a financing regime that is compatible with other network based assets. Also identified is a role for electric storage heaters for buildings with low heat demand.

–  –  –

CONTENTS

DECLARATION

Abstract

CONTENTS

LIST OF FIGURES

LIST OF TABLES

NOMENCLATURE

ABBREVIATIONS

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

PUBLICATIONS

1 INTRODUCTION

1.1 Background

1.2 UK heat and CO2 emissions

1.3 UK heat strategy and policy

1.4 Motivation, aims and objectives

1.5 Research questions (RQ)

1.6 Thesis structure

2 LOW CARBON HEAT SCENARIOS

2.1 Residential heating technology scenarios for 2050

2.2 Modelling methodology

2.3 Discussion and conclusions

3 SPACE & WATER HEATING DEMAND

3.1 Methodology

–  –  –

3.2 Results

3.3 Discussion and conclusions

4 COST & PERFORMANCE OF LOW CARBON HEATING SYSTEMS

4.1 Assumptions

4.2 Gas condensing boiler

4.3 District heating

4.4 Electric heating

4.5 Electric storage heaters

4.6 Future uncertainties of heater technologies

4.7 Discussion and conclusions

5 INTEGRATED HEAT & ELECTRICITY INVESTMENT MODEL

5.1 Multi Energy System models

5.2 Overview of integrated heat and electricity investment model.................. 117

5.3 Model formulation

5.4 Performance features and modelling of heat technologies

5.5 Model validation

5.6 Model results

5.7 Strengths of the investment model and areas for improvement................ 161

5.8 Discussion and conclusions

6 ANALYSIS & EVALUATION OF HEATING SYSTEMS USING THE INTEGRATED





HEAT & ELECTRICITY INVESTMENT MODEL

6.1 Studies 1.1 to 1.6 - Impact of modelling and temperature scenarios........ 167

6.2 Study 2.1 to 2.6 - Sensitivity studies

6.3 Study 3 - Heat storage

–  –  –

6.4 Study 4 - Carbon limits

6.5 Study 5 - Heat density and district heating

6.6 Discussion and conclusions

7 CONCLUSIONS, ACHIEVEMENTS & FURTHER WORK

7.1 Summary of conclusions

7.2 Research question 5 - How does a strategic approach to heat differ to an

–  –  –

7.3 Further work

BIBLIOGRAPHY

APPENDICES

APPENDIX 1 – MODEL DATA

APPENDIX 2 - AIR TO WATER HEAT PUMP EVOLUTION

APPENDIX 3 – GENERATOR DATA

–  –  –

Figure 2: Total UK energy consumption in 2012 [8].

Figure 3: UK heat consumption in 2012 [8].

Figure 4: UK CO2 emissions (Mt) from heat in 2012 [8].

Figure 5: UK space and water heating by source in 2012 [8].

Figure 6: Technology pathways for 2050 [16].

Figure 7: Space and water heating technology scenarios in 2050 showing share of heat demand.

Figure 8: Heat demand model.

Figure 9: Natural gas flow chart in 2013 (TWh) [44].

Figure 10: Scatter graph of commercial & domestic daily gas demand against temperature in 2010.

Figure 11: “Actual” versus “Derived” gas annual duration curve for 2010.................64 Figure 12: “Actual” versus “Derived” daily gas demand for 2010.

Figure 13: Heating degree days 1998-2010 (15.5°C cut off).

Figure 14: UK daily temperature annual duration curves.

Figure 15: Micro CHP daily heat demand.

Figure 16: Gas condensing boiler daily heat demand.

Figure 17: ASHP hourly annual efficiency for temperature scenarios (pu)................71

–  –  –

Figure 18: Scatter plot of temperature and daily peak coincidence factor.................72 Figure 19: Scatter plot of temperature & date of occurrence of site peak heat demand.

Figure 20: Synthesised national half hourly heat demand (red) for 2010 and actual half hourly national electricity demand (grey) [52].

Figure 21: Synthesised national half hourly heat demand duration curve (red) and actual half hourly national electricity demand duration curve (grey) for 2010 [52].

Figure 22: Synthesised national heat demand duration curves for the temperature scenarios.

Figure 23: Comparison of synthesised national half hourly heat demand for 2010 with “Normal” temperature (green) against “SNT” temperature scenario (black). 76 Figure 24: Comparison of synthesised national half hourly heat demand for 2010 with “Normal” temperature (green) against “SNT” temperature scenario (black) and “characteristic day” (brown). The inset figure displays a single day profile.....77 Figure 25: Comparison of synthesised national half hourly heat demand for 2010 with “Normal” temperature (green) against “SNT” temperature scenario (black) and “characteristic day” (brown).

Figure 26: National peak heat demand with “Normal” temperature scenario based on DECC 2050 Pathways for domestic heat demand [16].

Figure 27: UK electricity peak heat demand at consumer premises for DECC 2050 Pathway 1 [16].

Figure 28: UK electricity peak heat demand at consumer premises for DECC 2050 Pathway 2 [16].

14 Robert Sansom October 2014 Figure 29: UK electricity peak heat demand at consumer premises for DECC 2050 Pathway 3 [16].

Figure 30: UK electricity peak heat demand at consumer premises for DECC 2050 Pathway 4 [16]

Figure 31: Household heat demand (“Normal” temperature scenario) for DECC 2050 Pathways [16].

Figure 32: DECC wholesale annual (flat) gas price scenarios (2013 prices)..............88 Figure 33: Total cost scenarios for residential gas based on DECC gas price scenarios supplemented by data from Ofgem with Pathway 3 heat demand from DECC 2050 Pathways (2013 prices).

Figure 34: Total cost for “Reference” gas price scenario (2013 prices).

Figure 35: CCC Fourth Carbon Budget projections for UK CO2 emissions in 2030..91 Figure 36: DECC’s updated short-term traded sector carbon values for policy appraisal (2013 prices).

Figure 37: Total cost scenarios with the cost of carbon added (shaded area) for residential gas (2013 prices).

Figure 38: Total cost for “Reference” gas price scenario escalation in network charges (2013 prices).

Figure 39: Heat network costs for different household types (2013 prices).............96 Figure 40: Heat network costs for different household types and with different financing assumptions (2013 prices).

Figure 41: Heat network costs with different financing assumptions against maximum levels of network utilisation (2013 prices).

–  –  –

Figure 42: Heat network levelised costs with varying load development periods and “Low” cost case, i.e. 6% pa cost of capital and 40 year amortisation period (2013 prices).

Figure 43: Heat network levelised costs with varying load development period and 10% pa cost of capital and 15 years amortisation period (2013 prices).................. 102 Figure 44: District heating total costs in 2030 against gas and carbon price scenarios and heat network financing (2013 prices).

Figure 45: Heat pump total costs in 2030 against electricity price scenarios and heat pump and network reinforcement costs (2013 prices).

Figure 46: Storage heater total costs in 2030 against electricity price scenarios and heat demand (2013 prices)

Figure 47: Comparison of the range of total costs for heater technologies with a “base” cost shown (2013 prices).

Figure 48: Cost and performance uncertainty map for heater technologies whereby 1=least uncertainty and 5 =most uncertainty

Figure 49: Integrated heat and electricity investment model.

Figure 50: Data flow chart of integrated heat and electricity investment model implemented in FICO® Xpress Optimisation Suite with Excel interface................... 121 Figure 51: Coefficient of performance and heat output against temperature for

8.5kWth ASHP.

Figure 52: Supplementary heating for a building with 8.5kWth ASHP and the impact on combined CoP.

Figure 53: Impact of ASHP rating on building heat carbon intensity from supplementary electric heating

–  –  –

Figure 54: Impact of ASHP rating on building’s heat carbon intensity assuming peaking plant with a carbon intensity of 400g/kWh is scheduled to meet supplementary electric heating demand.

Figure 55: Supplementary heating for a building with 5kWth hybrid heat pump and condensing gas boiler

Figure 56: Impact of hybrid heat pump rating on a building’s heat carbon intensity from supplementary gas heating.

Figure 57: “Iron diagram” for Alstom KA26 Combined heat and power production with a combined-cycle power plant [84].

Figure 58: Example of diagnostic data for CHP plant.

Figure 59: Example of integrated heat and electricity investment model result summary.

Figure 60: Example of graphical output from the investment model.

Figure 61: Study 1.1 - “Characteristic day” (Mode 1) - Generation capacity mix, heating technology total costs and carbon emissions.

Figure 62: Study 1.2 - “SNT” temperature scenario study (Mode 1) - Generation capacity mix, heating technology total costs and carbon emissions

Figure 63: Study 1.3 - “Normal” temperature scenario study (Mode 1) - Generation capacity mix, heating technology total costs and carbon emissions

Figure 64: Study 1.4 - “Cold” temperature scenario study (Mode 1) - Generation capacity mix, heating technology total costs and carbon emissions

Figure 65: Study 1.5 - “Normal” temperature scenario study (Mode 2) - Generation capacity mix, heating technology total costs and carbon emissions

Figure 66: Study 1.6 - “Cold” temperature scenario study (Mode 2) - Generation capacity mix, heating technology total costs and carbon emissions

–  –  –

Figure 67: Study 2.1 - “Reference” case. “SNT” temperature scenario - Generation capacity mix, heating technology total costs and share of households.

Figure 68: Study 2.2 - Sensitivity on heat pump and heat network capital costs (2013 prices).

Figure 69: Study 2.3 - Sensitivity on gas and carbon prices (2013 prices).............. 177 Figure 70: Study 2.4 - Sensitivity on heat demand for “Reference” costs................. 179 Figure 71: Study 2.5 - Sensitivity on heat demand for “Low” costs.

Figure 72: Study 2.6 Sensitivity on heat pump and heat network capital costs with CHP (2013 prices).

Figure 73: Study 3 – Impact of storage on total costs (2013 prices).

Figure 74: Study 4 - Impact of a carbon constraint on heating technology total costs and share of households (2013 prices).



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